THE CLIMB · Sunday, October 25, 2026
A Bitcoin Inspired Weekly · Where we are on the way up, and who’s reading the route right
🗺️ Where We Stand
Valley floor: ~$58,000 (June 2026 — the cycle bottom, confirmed)
You are here: ~$80,800 · +39% off the floor · this week: −2.3% (slipped, lost the 50-day)
The summit: $126,198 (Oct 6 2025 ATH — ~56% overhead)
The bottom question is still answered — we’re well up the face. But this was the first week the footing genuinely loosened: a wick to $79,146, and the 50-day line cracked after holding 66 straight days.
🪜 The Ladder Overhead
🔹 $82,000 — reclaim to repair the chart · +1.5% · next foothold
🔹 $82,625 — the 20-day / Bollinger mid · +2%
🔹 $84,333 — last week’s rejection · +4%
🔹 $100,000 — Std Chartered’s year-end target · +24%
🔹 $126,198 — the old summit · +56%
Hold $80K / $79,146; reclaim $82K and the slip was just a stumble. Lose the floor and $78K, then the $73–74K short-term-holder cost basis, come into view.
🧭 The Guides — This Week’s Report Card
The week’s slip sorted the voices cleanly.
✅ Called it — the caution camp. As the 50-day cracked, chart-watchers like Ali Martinez flagging $73K downside-if-$80K-breaks read the softening correctly (Oct 23); Peter Brandt’s standing “near-term can bite” held up again.
⏳ Holding firm — the institutions raised targets into the dip, which is notable: Bernstein reiterated $125K year-end (Oct 23), Citi’s $113K and Standard Chartered’s $100K stand, and JPMorgan modeled BTC to beat stocks, bonds and gold over the decade. At the far end, Robert Breedlove made the ultra-long case — “millions by the 2030s,” price “up forever” on dollar debasement (Oct 24) — directionally bold, timing unfalsifiable.
🔻 Discount — the week’s loudest bear, Chamath Palihapitiya, calling Bitcoin “eventually it gets hacked and then it goes to zero” on quantum (Oct 22) — but he’s the serial flip-flopper (megabull → “crypto is dead” → “zero”) now talking his sold position. A real risk; not a near-term call.
The read: price slipped, yet the institutions firmed their targets — conviction up while the candle went down. Near-term caution earned its keep; the “zero” FUD came from the least consistent voice. Weight it that way: long-term targets rising, short-term footing loose, tail-risk discounted.
The Bottom Line
The climb took a real step down this week — not a fall (we’re still 39% off the floor, above the long-term averages, with whales buying the dip), but the first loose footing in two months. Now the test: the Fed (Oct 28), a huge options expiry (Oct 30), and midterms (Nov 3) all land this week, into a market clinging to $80K. Reclaim $82K and the slip was a stumble; lose $80K and the bears get $78K. The base is intact and the guides who matter are still pointing up — but this is the week the next foothold gets decided. ⚓
— The Inspirator