Good morning everybody.
Bitcoin is still doing what Bitcoin has been doing for weeks.
Going sideways.
We’re sitting around $65,000, and Malcolm the Earthling remains confident that $60,000 was the bottom. He even informed me on Spotify that he has a crystal ball and is always right.
So there you go.
Case closed.
Or maybe not.
The next real macro test is inflation. Markets are trying to figure out what the Federal Reserve does next, and the upcoming CPI numbers could shift those expectations quickly.
Inflation and the Fed Are Still Hanging Over Bitcoin
Bitcoin generally benefits when markets expect lower interest rates.
The problem is that inflation is still everywhere.
Gas recently hit around $4.30 a gallon here in Ohio. A friend sent me a picture of regular gas approaching $6 in California. Premium here has been around $5.50.
At the same time, the labor market is showing signs of weakness.
Prediction markets currently put the highest probability on the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September, while a rate increase is also being priced as a possibility.
That leaves Bitcoin in an awkward position.
A weaker economy creates pressure for lower rates.
Persistent inflation creates pressure for higher rates.
CPI could tell us which side starts winning that argument.
Strategy Sells Another $108 Million in Bitcoin
Michael Saylor recently appeared on The Diary of a CEO doing what Michael Saylor does best: talking about Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Strategy is selling Bitcoin.
The company sold approximately 1,690 Bitcoin between August 3 and August 9, raising roughly $108 million at an average price near $64,000.
Strategy’s average Bitcoin acquisition price is approximately $75,385.
So the company that spent years building its identity around accumulating Bitcoin is now selling some of that Bitcoin below its overall average purchase price.
That doesn’t necessarily mean those particular coins were sold at a loss. Bitcoin isn’t tracked like individual baseball cards. But at the portfolio level, Strategy is selling while its Bitcoin position is underwater.
And once again, I have questions.
Someone Explain Strategy to Me
Strategy isn’t simply “buy Bitcoin forever” anymore.
The company now has preferred dividends, cash reserves, debt repurchases, stock issuance, and selective Bitcoin sales.
I’ve asked this before, and I’m asking again.
Explain to me how this structure is fundamentally different from something that at least looks and smells like a Ponzi.
I’m not saying it legally is one.
I’m saying I want someone to explain the mechanics to me.
Paul McNeal tried privately.
I didn’t like his answer.
So I’m opening the floor.
Robinhood Expands Crypto Trading in the UK
Robinhood is rolling out crypto trading for eligible UK customers through Bitstamp.
The service includes more than 50 digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Hyperliquid, directly inside Robinhood’s main investing application.
Robinhood says there will be no trading, custody, or account-maintenance fees, although customers will still pay applicable foreign-exchange costs.
Robinhood also says its own blockchain ecosystem has already generated more than $18 billion in decentralized exchange trading volume and surpassed $140 million in total value locked since July.
Robinhood is rapidly becoming much more than the stock-trading app that emerged during the GameStop era.
Tokenized Assets Could Reach $4 Trillion
Standard Chartered estimates that tokenized real-world assets could reach approximately $4 trillion by the end of 2030.
That could also be significant for Chainlink.
Tokenized assets still need reliable information from outside blockchains. Prices, interest rates, asset values, settlement information, and other external data have to reach the blockchain somehow.
That’s exactly the problem oracle networks such as Chainlink were built to solve.
We’ve talked about this for years.
Chainlink has essentially been waiting for the financial system to become tokenized enough that everybody suddenly realizes they need an oracle.
We’re getting closer.
The CLARITY Act Returns in September
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has set up a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act for when senators return from the August recess in mid-September.
The legislation would establish a federal market structure for digital assets, including clearer rules for determining which assets are securities, which are commodities, and whether the SEC or CFTC has jurisdiction.
The Senate needs 60 votes, meaning Republicans will need Democratic support to move the legislation forward.
And several major disagreements remain.
Stablecoin Yield Is Still a Major Fight
Banks continue opposing stablecoin rewards, yield, and similar incentives.
It’s not difficult to understand why.
If a regulated stablecoin can offer consumers competitive yield while maintaining liquidity and allowing nearly instantaneous transfers, why would somebody leave large amounts of money sitting in a traditional bank account earning almost nothing?
Banks know they may have difficulty competing with that product.
But “our existing product can’t compete” isn’t a good enough reason to prohibit the new one.
If stablecoins are properly backed, transparent, regulated, and safe, consumers should be allowed to decide where they keep their money.
Democrats Have a Legitimate Ethics Argument
Another major CLARITY Act dispute involves President Trump’s crypto businesses.
Democrats are pushing for stronger restrictions on crypto ventures involving government officials, including proposals that could require the president to divest from certain crypto-related businesses.
Normally, I’d complain about Democrats finding another reason to delay crypto legislation.
But they have a point here.
World Liberty reportedly received $100 million from a businessman investigated for money laundering, according to reporting highlighted in the transcript from The New York Times.
If Congress is creating regulations governing crypto companies while the sitting president and his family have significant financial interests in crypto businesses affected by those regulations, there are obvious ethical questions.
That doesn’t automatically prove wrongdoing.
It does mean the conflict deserves scrutiny.
You can’t reasonably write rules governing an industry while pretending financial interests held by the people writing or enforcing those rules don’t matter.
Quantum Computing Could Look Like a Normal Hack
Quantum computing is also back in the conversation.
Quantinuum founder Christopher Smith warned that the first successful quantum attack against cryptocurrency might not look like some enormous, obvious event.
It could simply resemble an unexplained wallet breach.
A sufficiently capable quantum computer could theoretically derive private keys from public keys exposed on-chain.
That’s what makes the threat interesting.
An attacker wouldn’t necessarily announce:
“Hey everybody, I broke Bitcoin.”
They could quietly target wallets.
Move funds.
Make each incident look like compromised keys, bad security, or user error.
And now AI adds another layer. AI doesn’t need to break elliptic-curve cryptography itself. It can help attackers identify targets, develop strategies, automate attacks, and exploit sloppy infrastructure.
This isn’t an immediate threat to Bitcoin today.
But after Coldcard and other recent security failures, the assumptions surrounding private-key security deserve another look.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin: $64,830
Ethereum: $1,907
BNB: $601
USDC: #5
XRP: $1.02
Solana: $76.66
TRON: $0.331
Hyperliquid: $54.67
Dogecoin: $0.069
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.21 trillion
Fear & Greed Index: Neutral
My Take
CPI is probably the immediate thing to watch.
Bitcoin is sitting near $65,000 while markets try to decide whether inflation or economic weakness will dictate the Fed’s next move.
But Strategy remains the story I keep coming back to.
Michael Saylor continues publicly making the strongest possible argument for owning Bitcoin while his company is now selectively selling it below Strategy’s overall average acquisition price.
Maybe this is exactly what responsible balance-sheet management looks like for a company with Strategy’s capital structure.
If so, somebody explain it.
Because “we buy Bitcoin forever” was easy to understand.
Whatever Strategy has become now is considerably more complicated.