Good morning everybody.
Bitcoin is still doing what it has been doing for weeks.
Going sideways.
We are sitting around $64,000 ahead of the July CPI report, volatility remains compressed, and perpetual trading activity has fallen to its lowest level since 2023.
The market is waiting for something to happen.
CPI could be that catalyst.
But while Bitcoin looks like it is sleeping, there is plenty happening underneath the surface.
Bitcoin Is Waiting for CPI
The broader crypto market remains cautious heading into the July inflation report.
Bitcoin continues trading around $64,000, with volatility compressed and perpetual futures activity sitting at levels we have not seen since 2023.
That tells you traders are not particularly aggressive right now.
The market is waiting for a macro catalyst.
If CPI comes in cooler than expected, that could strengthen the argument for lower interest rates and provide support for risk assets.
If inflation comes in hot, the opposite could happen.
Until then, Bitcoin appears content to sit in its current range.
Harmony Suffers a Massive Token Exploit
The biggest security story today is Harmony.
The project confirmed an exploit that allowed an attacker to mint approximately 4 billion ONE tokens.
That represents more than a quarter of the existing token supply.
ONE fell roughly 40% following the attack as exchanges were asked to freeze suspicious funds and Harmony began considering emergency responses, including potential rollback options.
This is more than a normal hack.
An attacker did not simply drain funds from a wallet or exploit a bridge.
They created billions of new tokens.
That strikes directly at the monetary integrity of the network.
If users cannot trust the supply of an asset, the entire economic model becomes questionable.
Fidelity Wants to Add Staking to Its Ether ETF
Fidelity is moving toward adding Ethereum staking to its nearly $900 million Ether ETF.
The proposal would allow the fund to stake part of its Ethereum holdings and distribute staking income to shareholders through quarterly cash payouts.
That would be an important development.
Ethereum ETFs currently provide price exposure.
Adding staking begins turning them into yield-producing investment products.
That makes Ethereum fundamentally different from Bitcoin from an institutional investment perspective because ETH can potentially generate native network yield while investors continue holding the underlying asset.
If approved, expect other Ethereum ETF providers to look seriously at doing the same thing.
Bitcoin Miners Keep Selling
Public Bitcoin miners have reportedly sold approximately 28,000 Bitcoin this year, worth roughly $1.78 billion.
That matters because miners remain one of the market’s consistent sources of natural selling pressure.
Mining companies have expenses.
Electricity.
Infrastructure.
Employees.
Debt.
Equipment.
And increasingly, enormous capital requirements tied to AI and data-center expansion.
When Bitcoin mining economics become weaker, miners have to find money somewhere.
For many of them, that means selling Bitcoin.
We’ve talked about miners pivoting toward AI infrastructure for exactly this reason. They need predictable revenue streams that do not depend entirely on Bitcoin’s price.
Russia Wants Retail Crypto Limited to Three Assets
Russia is considering limiting retail cryptocurrency trading to only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT.
That would dramatically narrow the assets available to ordinary Russian investors while keeping access centered around the largest and most liquid cryptocurrencies.
This is the same regulatory question we keep seeing around the world.
How much protection should governments provide investors before that protection simply becomes restriction?
There are thousands of garbage tokens.
There are scams.
There are products that probably should never have existed.
But once governments decide which specific assets people are allowed to own, we are having a very different conversation.
The Bank of England Tests Stablecoins and a Digital Pound
The Bank of England is exploring how stablecoins and a potential digital pound could operate together within trade finance.
That is an important distinction.
For years, the CBDC conversation has often been framed as governments versus private stablecoins.
We may ultimately get both.
Central banks could operate sovereign digital currencies while regulated private stablecoins handle commercial payments, settlements, and specialized financial transactions.
The infrastructure being tested today could determine which form of digital money people actually use in the future.
The CFTC Steps Into the Kalshi Fight
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is pushing back against New York’s attempts to restrict Kalshi.
The dispute remains centered around the same question we’ve been discussing for months.
Are event contracts federally regulated derivatives?
Or are they gambling products that states have the authority to regulate?
Kalshi says federal commodities law governs the products.
States say sports and event markets look like gambling because, well, they look like gambling.
Meanwhile, FlightAware dropped its separate lawsuit against Kalshi after only one day.
That lawsuit involved Kalshi’s use of FlightAware data in markets involving airline cancellations.
Prediction markets continue growing faster than the legal framework surrounding them.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin remains around $64,000, with the market waiting for CPI and broader macro direction.
The bigger issue today is not price movement.
It is the lack of movement.
Volatility remains compressed, traders remain cautious, and altcoins continue looking fragile.
My Take
Bitcoin is basically in hibernation.
That does not mean crypto is quiet.
Harmony just suffered a monetary-integrity failure.
Fidelity is trying to turn Ethereum ETFs into yield-producing products.
Bitcoin miners are selling billions of dollars worth of BTC.
Governments are rewriting crypto rules.
Stablecoins are being integrated into central-bank experiments.
Prediction markets are fighting regulators in court.
And AI continues changing the economics of Bitcoin mining infrastructure.
Bitcoin is waiting for CPI.
The rest of the industry isn’t waiting for anything.
Happy Hodling, Everyone.