August 17: Bitcoin Stays Flat as ETF Outflows and Thin Liquidity Keep Traders Cautious
Good morning everybody.
Bitcoin is flat again.
We’re sitting around $63,400, ETF flows are mixed, and the market still doesn’t look clearly bullish.
CoinDesk reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted four days of outflows last week, losing around $390 million, the largest weekly withdrawal in about six weeks.
So even though Bitcoin is modestly higher this morning, the bulls are still dealing with weak participation and a market that feels thin underneath.
Leverage Is High, but Liquidity Is Thin
Bitcoin futures open interest is sitting around $48 billion, while 24-hour futures trading volume is only about $25 billion.
That means there is a lot of leverage sitting in the market relative to how much activity is actually moving through it.
In plain English, a lot of people have positions open, but there may not be enough liquidity if everyone suddenly tries to get out at once.
That is not necessarily bearish by itself, but it is something worth watching.
Thin liquidity plus high leverage can make relatively small moves turn violent very quickly.
September Rate Hike Looks Less Likely
Goldman Sachs now says a September rate hike is very unlikely.
Its chief economist argues that inflation is more likely to improve than deteriorate from here.
CME FedWatch data cited by CoinDesk showed traders pricing only about a 30.6% chance of a September rate hike.
I guess that’s good.
Bitcoin generally benefits when markets expect easier monetary policy.
But right now, even improving rate expectations haven’t been enough to break Bitcoin out of this range.
Strategy Raises Another $333.7 Million
Strategy raised approximately $333.7 million last week by selling around 3.46 million shares.
The company did not buy or sell any Bitcoin, leaving its holdings unchanged at approximately 840,447 BTC.
Instead, Strategy used part of the proceeds to repurchase approximately $132.2 million of preferred stock.
And once again, I’m sitting here trying to understand what this company actually does now.
They’re selling common stock.
They’re repurchasing preferred stock.
They’re holding Bitcoin.
They’re managing dividends and cash reserves.
At this point, Strategy isn’t simply a Bitcoin treasury company.
It’s a complicated financial structure wrapped around a very large Bitcoin position.
Maybe that’s brilliant.
Maybe I’m just too dumb to understand it.
But the simple “buy Bitcoin forever” story is clearly gone.
HIVE Signs a Major GPU Cloud Deal
HIVE shares rose roughly 9% in premarket trading after the company announced a $350 million, five-year GPU cloud agreement.
The deal increases HIVE’s contracted annual recurring revenue to approximately $180 million, with the company targeting $200 million by the fourth quarter of this year.
This is the same miner story we’ve been following for months.
Bitcoin miners built massive infrastructure around electricity and compute.
Now AI companies want exactly those resources.
The companies that can convert mining infrastructure into cloud, GPU, and AI revenue are giving themselves another way to survive weaker Bitcoin markets.
Tokenized Stocks Keep Growing
Tokenized stock ownership has more than doubled over the past month to approximately 1.31 million holders, according to RWA.xyz data cited by Cointelegraph.
Monthly transfer volume jumped nearly 180% to $23.13 billion, while active addresses rose approximately 34.6% to 572,000.
That is significant growth.
We’ve talked repeatedly about tokenized stocks, tokenized Treasuries, stablecoins, and tokenized real-world assets.
This isn’t theoretical anymore.
People are actually using these products.
The more traditional assets move on-chain, the harder it becomes to argue that crypto is only about speculative tokens.
CLARITY Act Odds Collapse
The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have fallen to roughly 10%, down from around 75% in May.
That is a massive change.
A few months ago, people were treating passage as nearly inevitable.
Now the Senate has left town without passing the bill, the SEC delayed its own crypto rulemaking vote last week, and the legislative calendar is moving deeper into election season.
The bill is technically still alive.
Confidence isn’t.
And once lawmakers get closer to elections, everything becomes political.
If you need bipartisan votes, you’re asking senators and representatives to decide whether helping pass a major bill benefits them politically before Election Day.
That makes everything harder.
Binance Reportedly Gave Russian Authorities Customer Data
Reuters reporting cited by CoinDesk and Cointelegraph says Binance provided Russian authorities with customer information that was later used in a terrorism-financing case involving Russian IT specialist Yuri Balenky and crypto donations to Ukrainian groups.
The information reportedly included transaction records, date of birth, physical address, phone number, passport number, and copies of identity documents.
That is a reminder of what centralized exchanges actually are.
They are regulated financial companies.
They collect customer information.
And when governments obtain legal authority to request that information, exchanges can provide it.
Whether you think that’s good or bad depends on the circumstances.
But nobody should confuse using a centralized exchange with financial anonymity.
Chainalysis Sues Over $94.6 Million ICE Contract
Chainalysis Government Solutions is suing the U.S. government over ICE’s decision to award a sole-source contract to TRM Labs.
The contract is reportedly worth approximately $94.6 million and covers blockchain forensic software and support services for Homeland Security investigations.
Chainalysis alleges the decision was arbitrary and unreasonable, although much of the complaint remains sealed because it includes confidential business information.
Basically:
“Hey, government, that was supposed to be my $94 million.”
At minimum, they want a bite.
Israeli Crypto Broker Suffers Major Data Breach
Israeli crypto broker Bits of Gold says hackers accessed personal information belonging to roughly 200,000 customersthrough a third-party analytics provider.
Potentially exposed information includes:
Names
National identification numbers
Email addresses
Phone numbers
IP addresses
Bank account information
Public wallet addresses
That’s not good.
Even when private keys aren’t stolen, data like this can be extremely useful to scammers and attackers.
SafePal Also Reports Customer Data Exposure
SafePal disclosed a breach affecting approximately 39,798 customers who placed orders between March 2, 2025 and April 11, 2026.
The exposed information included customer names, physical addresses, and contact information.
SafePal says funds, seed phrases, private keys, bank information, payment-card numbers, and government IDs were not compromised.
That’s obviously much better than losing private keys.
But names and physical addresses still matter, especially when you’re talking about cryptocurrency users.
If attackers know someone bought a hardware wallet and know where that person lives, that creates an entirely different kind of security risk.
And if you suddenly start getting more scam calls and messages, you may now know why.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin: $63,450, up approximately 0.8%
Ethereum: $1,896, up approximately 1%
Tether: #3
BNB: $603, down approximately 0.6%
USDC: #5
XRP: $1.00, down approximately 0.3%
Solana: $75.29, roughly even
TRON: $0.331, roughly even
Hyperliquid: $59.06, up approximately 3.2%
Dogecoin: $0.07, up approximately 0.35%
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.18 trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 38, Fear
My Take
Bitcoin is still stuck, but the underlying market doesn’t feel particularly comfortable.
ETF flows turned negative last week.
Leverage remains elevated.
Liquidity is thin.
The CLARITY Act has gone from a near certainty to roughly a 10% chance of passing this year.
Meanwhile, the infrastructure side of crypto keeps moving forward.
HIVE is locking in AI revenue.
Tokenized stocks are growing quickly.
Blockchain forensic companies are fighting over nearly $100 million government contracts.
And centralized exchanges continue reminding everyone that convenience comes with surveillance and counterparty risk.
Bitcoin may be flat.
The industry around it definitely isn’t.