Good morning everybody.
It’s Monday, August 24th, 2026.
Your boy Matt got hurt at the gym.
I think I did something to my back on Friday doing squats. The stupid part is I wasn’t even going heavy. It was one of those days where I didn’t really want to work out, but I wanted to keep the habit going.
That’s something I’ve always believed. If you don’t feel like going to the gym, go anyway. Have the laziest workout imaginable. Stretch. Lift light. Go through the motions and leave. Keeping the habit is better than skipping it.
So I took weight off the bar, went down to around 165 pounds, decided I wasn’t squatting deep enough, went a little deeper and boom.
I’ve basically been lying on my back ever since.
Anyway, that’s enough about my back. You’re probably not here for that. You just tolerate hearing about my life so you can get to the crypto news.
And there is plenty to talk about because Bitcoin is now sitting around $79,000.
$80,000 Is the First Big Test
I’ve been saying to watch these round numbers.
First $80,000.
Then $90,000.
Then the really big one at $100,000.
Bitcoin is now right underneath the first barrier.
The reason these levels matter isn’t magical technical analysis. It’s psychology.
A lot of money entered Bitcoin around $80,000, $90,000, $100,000 and higher before watching Bitcoin collapse toward $60,000.
Some of those investors have never lived through a real Bitcoin drawdown before.
They don’t have diamond hands.
They hated watching their money disappear, and when Bitcoin gets them close to even again, some are going to say:
“Sell it. I’m not doing this again.”
So getting through these levels is going to require real liquidity.
Why Is Bitcoin Going Up?
The basic explanation hasn’t changed much from last week.
The first spark appears to have come from the bond market.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to expand longer-dated Treasury buybacks. The announcement pushed long-term yields lower, flattened the yield curve, weakened the dollar and helped lift stocks, gold and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin loves liquidity.
When financial conditions loosen and more money starts moving through markets, Bitcoin tends to benefit.
That’s the foundation underneath this rally.
ETFs Brought in $2.6 Billion
Then institutional money came back.
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted a combined $2.6 billion last week, their strongest week since October 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs brought in almost $2 billion, while Ethereum ETFs attracted around $700 million.
That’s real demand.
For months, we talked about money leaving these products.
Now that flow has reversed.
Liquidity started the fire.
ETF buying added fuel.
Then the shorts got burned.
The Short Squeeze Accelerated Everything
Once Bitcoin broke above its summer range, traders betting against Bitcoin were forced to close positions.
That creates a self-reinforcing cycle.
Bitcoin rises.
Shorts get liquidated.
Those positions are forced closed.
That creates additional buying.
Bitcoin rises further.
Then people sitting on the sidelines start getting FOMO.
Suddenly Bitcoin isn’t $62,000 anymore.
It’s $65,000.
Then $68,000.
Then $70,000.
Then you’re sitting there at $79,000 wondering why you didn’t buy two weeks ago.
The short squeeze wasn’t necessarily the original catalyst. It was the accelerant.
Now Comes the Hard Part
I don’t think Bitcoin simply blasts through $80,000 and goes straight to $100,000.
Maybe we touch $80,000 and fall back.
Maybe we break through to $81,000 or $82,000 and then fall back into the $70Ks.
That’s completely normal.
I think we may have to test $80,000 multiple times before we can convincingly hold above it.
Then we get to do the whole thing again at $90,000.
And if Bitcoin eventually approaches $100,000, you’re talking about an enormous psychological level with a lot of investors potentially sitting on profits or finally getting close to their original purchase prices.
Getting through that is going to require serious inflows.
AI Stocks Aren’t the Easy Trade Anymore
There’s another piece of this that I’m watching.
AI stocks have been one of the easiest places for capital to go.
That trade is getting more complicated.
Markets are looking toward Nvidia earnings, while several AI-adjacent names are under pressure.
I still think AI is going to be enormous.
Do I think OpenAI could eventually be worth trillions?
Absolutely.
Anthropic?
Absolutely.
And I’ll probably FOMO into the Anthropic IPO if it ever happens because I’m still annoyed that I didn’t buy SpaceX when I had the opportunity.
That’s how I invest.
I see something smart, don’t ape in, watch it go up, regret it, then ape into something else and hold the bag for six years.
I’ve apparently learned nothing.
But if major AI companies start going public, that’s something crypto investors should watch.
There is only so much capital looking for high-growth investments.
An OpenAI or Anthropic IPO could pull enormous amounts of speculative capital toward AI.
September 15 Could Be Bitcoin’s Next Political Catalyst
Trump’s White House crypto push and the CLARITY Act remain part of the bullish narrative.
The next major political date being discussed is around September 15, when the Senate could take procedural action on the legislation.
I think the politics here are bigger than people realize.
The crypto industry has enormous amounts of campaign money.
Fairshake has money.
Crypto executives have money.
The midterms are approaching.
And these companies didn’t spend hundreds of millions of dollars supporting candidates because they wanted nice meetings at the White House.
They want legislation.
If you’re a senator who wants crypto money behind your campaign, the message could become pretty straightforward:
Get this done.
CLARITY Matters Beyond This Administration
The CLARITY Act would establish clearer boundaries for which digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction.
But I think its importance extends beyond the current administration.
If political control changes, crypto companies need rules protecting them from having the entire regulatory environment rewritten every four years.
That’s why a durable legislative framework matters.
Companies need to know what they’re legally allowed to do regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats control Washington.
Right now, the political uncertainty itself is part of the risk.
Strategy Raises $2 Billion but Doesn’t Buy Bitcoin
Strategy sold approximately $2 billion worth of MSTR shares last week but didn’t buy or sell any Bitcoin.
Its Bitcoin holdings remain profitable again, with an average acquisition price around $75,000 and Bitcoin now trading near $79,000.
So Strategy raised a pile of cash and didn’t immediately turn around and buy Bitcoin.
Given how much we’ve talked about Strategy’s capital structure lately, that’s worth watching.
Stablecoins Are Becoming Too Big to Ignore
Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on Circle with a price target around $140, representing substantial potential upside from Friday’s close.
Its argument is that Circle can continue growing even if the CLARITY Act doesn’t pass.
USDC supply increased approximately $1.7 billion over the past week, while annualized stablecoin transaction volume is tracking around $17 trillion through July, up approximately 60% year over year.
Stablecoins aren’t going anywhere.
And that’s exactly why banks care so much.
JPMorgan doesn’t want to compete forever with Circle and Tether.
Banks would much rather control their own stablecoin infrastructure.
That’s where I worry about regulatory capture.
If the banks can’t beat stablecoins commercially, they’ll have every incentive to influence the regulations governing them.
XRP Was the Big Winner
XRP was the standout major token during the rally, climbing more than 50% over seven days by today’s price data.
Hyperliquid gained roughly 37%.
Ethereum gained around 33%.
Solana gained roughly 30%.
Dogecoin gained more than 30%.
This rally isn’t isolated to Bitcoin anymore.
Capital has moved aggressively into altcoins.
And if you bought after the market collapsed and you’re suddenly sitting on enormous gains, taking some profit isn’t exactly the craziest idea anybody has ever had.
Not financial advice.
This Week Has Plenty of Macro Risk
Bitcoin enters the final week of August with major macroeconomic events still ahead.
Markets will be watching Jackson Hole, PCE inflation, second-quarter GDP revisions, jobless claims and consumer sentiment.
Any one of those can strengthen or weaken the liquidity narrative supporting this rally.
That’s important because Bitcoin has moved incredibly quickly.
When the market is this extended and sentiment is this bullish, bad macro news can suddenly matter a lot more.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin: $79,035, up approximately 2% in 24 hours and 25% over seven days
Ethereum: $2,508, up approximately 2% and 33% over seven days
Tether: #3
XRP: $1.51, up more than 50% over seven days
BNB: $705
USDC: #6
Solana: $96.12, up roughly 30% over seven days
TRON: $0.344
Hyperliquid: $80.60, up roughly 37% over seven days
Dogecoin: $0.092, up roughly 32% over seven days
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.67 trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 81, Extreme Greed
My Take
The rally has real reasons behind it.
Treasury-market liquidity improved.
ETF money returned.
Shorts got squeezed.
FOMO followed.
And political optimism around the CLARITY Act added another catalyst.
But Bitcoin is now approaching exactly the level I’ve been warning about.
$80,000.
I don’t think we simply walk through it.
There are sellers waiting.
There are people who want their money back.
There are people sitting on sudden profits.
And we’re already at 81 on the Fear & Greed Index after being miserable a couple of weeks ago.
Maybe this is the beginning of the next major Bitcoin run.
Maybe $60,000 really was the bottom.
But we still have to prove it.
Break $80,000.
Hold it.
Then we’ll start talking about $90,000.
Happy HODLing, Everyone.