Good morning everybody.
It’s Wednesday, August 26th, 2026.
And Bitcoin is doing almost exactly what we’ve been talking about.
It gets to $80,000.
It gets rejected.
It falls back.
It comes up again.
It gets rejected again.
Bitcoin is now sitting around $78,300, and this $80,000 level has become the first serious test of whether this rally actually has legs.
I’ve been saying that $80K was going to be difficult.
The question now isn’t whether Bitcoin can briefly trade above $80,000. We’ve already seen that.
The question is whether Bitcoin can break through $80K and stay there.
Profit Taking Is the Biggest Problem
The simplest explanation for why this rally has stalled is profit taking.
Think about how institutional investors look at this.
The S&P 500 historically gives you somewhere around 10% annually over long periods, depending on exactly how you’re measuring it.
Bitcoin just gave investors roughly 25% in a very short period of time.
If you’re a portfolio manager sitting on a gain like that, you’re probably taking some money off the table.
That’s the difference between Bitcoin today and Bitcoin fifteen years ago.
The days when everybody buying Bitcoin was simply screaming “HODL” and waiting for a 10,000% return are over.
Bitcoin is now owned through ETFs.
It’s owned by institutions.
It’s inside professionally managed portfolios.
Those investors rebalance.
They take profits.
They manage risk.
And a 20% or 25% return is a damn good trade.
That creates natural selling pressure.
The Short Squeeze Did a Lot of the Heavy Lifting
There’s another reason Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed.
A substantial portion of the first move higher came from forced buying.
Approximately $1.4 billion in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated on August 19, followed by another roughly $740 million on August 21, according to the figures discussed in today’s show.
When you’re short Bitcoin and price starts ripping higher, eventually you’re forced to close.
Closing a short requires buying.
That buying pushes Bitcoin higher.
Which liquidates more shorts.
Which creates more buying.
It’s a beautiful mechanism when you’re long.
Not so beautiful when you’re the guy getting liquidated.
But once that forced buying runs its course, Bitcoin needs another source of demand to continue higher.
That’s where we are now.
$6.4 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Friday
There’s another short-term issue.
Approximately $6.4 billion in Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire Friday, immediately following Bitcoin’s move from roughly $62,000 to $80,000.
That can amplify volatility around the market.
So we have profit taking.
The short squeeze losing some of its fuel.
A massive options expiration.
And Bitcoin sitting directly underneath a major psychological resistance level.
There’s plenty of reason for the market to pause here.
What Does Bitcoin Need to Break $80K?
The first thing is sustained ETF demand.
Bitcoin ETFs reportedly brought in approximately $314 million on Tuesday, marking seven consecutive days of inflows.
August inflows have now reached roughly $3 billion.
That’s important.
If investors continue selling around $80,000, somebody needs to absorb that supply.
ETF demand can do it.
What we don’t want is one giant day of inflows followed by money disappearing again.
Bitcoin needs consistent buying.
Bitcoin Needs to Turn $80K Into the Floor
The second thing is a clean daily close above $80,000.
And when I say above $80K, I’m not talking about Bitcoin touching $80,500 for twenty minutes and then trading at $78,000 all day.
That’s not breaking $80K.
I want Bitcoin trading around $81,000.
Then $82,000.
Maybe $83,000.
Then when it pulls back, instead of collapsing to $77,000 or $78,000, it finds support around $80,000.
Maybe that’s $79,500.
Maybe $79,300.
Whatever.
The important thing is that the market begins spending more time above $80,000 than below it.
That’s when resistance starts becoming support.
From there, I think $82K, $84K and $88K become the next levels before we start fighting with $90,000.
Don’t Assume It’s a Clear Path to $100K
This is where people get themselves into trouble.
You’ll hear:
“If Bitcoin breaks $80K, there’s no resistance until $100K.”
No.
That’s not how markets work.
Maybe the current order book looks thin above $80,000.
But what happens when somebody wakes up tomorrow and Bitcoin is trading at $85,000?
They put in a sell order.
Somebody else bought at $60,000 and suddenly has a 40% gain.
They sell some.
Another investor has been underwater for months and finally sees an opportunity to get their money back.
They sell.
The path looks clear until price gets there.
Then everybody shows up.
That’s why $90,000 will be difficult.
And $100,000 will be extremely difficult.
If Bitcoin blows through $100K and starts holding $105K or $110K, something much larger has changed.
At that point, we’re having a completely different conversation.
The Bond Market Still Matters More Than Oil
There’s plenty of macroeconomic discussion around oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil is trading around $86 a barrel.
Does cheaper oil help consumers?
Sure.
Does it help me personally?
Absolutely.
I drive something that gets around 15 miles per gallon on premium. Put my camper behind it and I’m getting about nine.
I’ve basically rediscovered my bicycle.
But I don’t think people are looking at cheaper oil and saying:
“You know what I’m going to do? Buy Bitcoin.”
The Treasury market is considerably more important to this rally.
Treasury has expanded its debt-buyback plans, shifting some pressure away from bonds and toward the dollar.
That strengthens the debasement trade.
If investors believe the government may need to buy enormous amounts of its own debt while fiscal pressure continues building, scarce assets become more attractive.
Gold.
Bitcoin.
That’s the macro story I’m watching.
Revolut Begins Rolling Out a Euro Stablecoin
Revolut has begun phasing in its EURR euro-backed stablecoin for selected customers in Denmark, Poland and Portugal.
The stablecoin is designed to maintain a one-euro value, with reserves structured under Europe’s MiCA regulatory framework and integration directly into Revolut’s retail application.
This is another example of stablecoins becoming ordinary financial infrastructure.
We’re moving beyond crypto-native companies issuing tokens primarily for traders.
Mainstream financial platforms are beginning to integrate stablecoins directly into products used by ordinary customers.
The Tornado Cash Retrial Moves to 2027
Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm’s retrial has been delayed until April 26, 2027.
Storm was convicted last year on one money-transmission count, while the jury failed to reach a verdict on other charges.
And this case raises a question I’ve struggled with from the beginning.
How responsible should a software developer be for what people do with the software they create?
Tornado Cash was designed to obscure transaction histories.
That can provide legitimate financial privacy.
It can also obviously be used by criminals to obscure stolen or illicit funds.
Both things can be true.
But writing software that enables privacy isn’t the same thing as personally laundering somebody’s money.
Where does the developer’s responsibility end and the user’s responsibility begin?
I don’t think that’s an easy question.
And I want to hear what you guys think.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin: $78,364, down approximately 0.8% in 24 hours but still up 21% over seven days
Ethereum: $2,456, down approximately 0.7%
Tether: #3
BNB: $701
XRP: $1.41, down approximately 4.4% but still up 40% over seven days
USDC: #6
Solana: $96.87, down approximately 1.4%
TRON: $0.335, down approximately 2%
Hyperliquid: $81.97, up approximately 2.4%
Dogecoin: $0.086, down approximately 4.2%
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.63 trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 80, Extreme Greed
My Take
Bitcoin’s problem isn’t getting to $80,000.
It’s finding enough buyers to absorb everyone who wants to sell there.
The short squeeze helped get us here.
Now Bitcoin needs something more sustainable.
ETF inflows are probably the most important immediate indicator.
If institutional money keeps coming in and Bitcoin can establish $80,000 as support, I think $90,000 becomes very realistic.
But don’t confuse breaking $80K with having an empty highway to $100K.
Every time Bitcoin moves higher, new sellers appear.
People take profits.
Institutions rebalance.
Old bag holders finally get their money back.
That’s what a mature market looks like.
Bitcoin has already proven it can touch $80,000.
Now prove it can live there.
Happy HODLing, Everyone.