THE CLIMB · Sunday, October 11, 2026
A Bitcoin Inspired Weekly · Where we are, and who’s reading the route right
Hey folks, I was out of sorts this weekend because I attended my first PSU White Out game. The tailgating was amazing and we spent all day in Happy Valley. Walked downtown and to the creamery before going back to visit several tailgating parties and then in for the big game. The energy was electric even though the overall mood was down since they are not ranked.
This was the beginning of the game and it eventually filled out and hit a record 114,000+. Welcome to my new Sunday series, hope you enjoy it.
🗺️ Where We Stand
Valley floor: ~$58,000 (June 2026 — the cycle bottom, confirmed)
You are here: ~$83,000 · +43% off the floor · this week: −2%
The summit: $126,198 (Oct 2025 ATH — 34% overhead)
🪜 The Ladder Overhead
🔹 $84–85K — 2026 buyers’ cost basis (supply wall) · +2% · next foothold
🔹 $87,570 — yearly open → green on the year · +5%
🔹 $100,000 — Std Chartered’s year-end target · +20%
🔹 $126,198 — the old summit · +52%
Clear $84–85K, where this year’s buyers are underwater, and trapped supply flips to fuel.
🧭 The Guides — This Week’s Report Card
This week’s $1B flush graded the voices in real time. How they’re aging:
✅ Called it — Peter Brandt flagged an early-October pullback weeks ahead (Sep 29); it landed on schedule. Eric Crown tagged September a “nothing month, then October moves” — read the rhythm right.
⏳ Holding firm — Standard Chartered reaffirmed $100K year-end through the flush (Oct 9); bold, unbroken, clock ticking. Matt Hougan’s “10-year grind up, not a moonshot” keeps fitting the chop better than the euphoric calls.
🔻 Looking early — Citi raised its target to $113K on Oct 2, days before the flush — right on the horizon, poorly timed for the week.
The read: nobody turned bearish — the real split is direction vs. timing, and this week timing won. Weight the guides who respect the path, not just the summit. Six weeks in, Brandt’s earned trust on timing, Hougan on framing, Saylor on simply doing what he says (he bought the dip again).
The Bottom Line
One week onto the climb, Bitcoin stumbled to $80,365 — and caught the ledge, whales adding ~15,000 BTC into the dip. A foothold, not a fall. Next is clearing $84–85K; CPI Wednesday is the weather. Base camp holds. We climb.
— The Inspirator ⚓