G’day everybody.
Crypto is quiet right now.
Not just quiet in terms of price movement. Liquidity itself has dried up significantly.
Craig is watching roughly 540 trading pairs, and only about 103 currently have more than $3 million in 24-hour volume. He also pointed to data suggesting Bitcoin liquidity is sitting near a seven-year low.
That doesn’t mean there are no trades.
It means traders need to be much more selective about where they put their money.
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Bitcoin Remains Trapped in the Same Range
Bitcoin has spent roughly the last month trading between approximately $62,500 and $65,500.
Price has repeatedly bounced from one side of that range to the other without establishing a meaningful trend.
Right now, Bitcoin is sitting near the lower end.
Craig’s view remains straightforward: until Bitcoin breaks out of this range, there isn’t much reason to develop a strong directional opinion.
The weekly chart still carries a broader downtrend, however, and Bitcoin has produced bearish candles after pulling back toward the moving-average cradle zone around the $65,000 level.
Craig would like to see Bitcoin break the recent lows and move out of the consolidation. If that happens, the next major area he’d be watching sits around $59,000.
Low Liquidity Is Making Everything Look Bigger
One side effect of thin liquidity is that relatively small price moves can look much more dramatic on the chart.
A 1% or 2% candle currently appears significant simply because most surrounding candles are so small.
Bitcoin has lost momentum.
The one-hour chart is especially messy, with price moving down, reversing higher, moving lower again, and generally producing very little clean structure.
These are not the conditions Craig prefers.
He’s a trend trader.
When trends disappear, the number of worthwhile trades disappears with them.
The Few Trades Available Have Worked
While the number of setups has been limited, Craig has still found several profitable trades.
He remains short XRP, having captured part of its move lower and already adjusted his stop.
Pump.fun also produced a strong higher-timeframe short setup, while APT and Uniswap provided additional opportunities last week.
The important point is that Craig hasn’t needed dozens of trades.
There simply haven’t been dozens of quality setups.
Instead, the limited number of trades that did appear happened to produce a strong win-loss ratio and reasonable risk-to-reward returns.
Ethereum Is Still Going Nowhere
Ethereum remains stuck in the same low-momentum environment.
The weekly downtrend remains technically intact, but price has spent roughly two weeks producing extremely small candles and more than a month trading without much direction on the daily chart.
There isn’t enough momentum yet for Craig to become particularly interested.
BNB Is One of the Better-Looking Major Coins
BNB is showing more structure than most of the market.
The daily chart has produced a higher high and higher low and is now pulling back toward Craig’s cradle zone near the psychologically important $600 level.
Depending on how the candle develops, Craig believes this could become a potential long setup.
The two-day chart isn’t perfect, so he isn’t committing to the trade yet.
But compared with the rest of the top cryptocurrencies, BNB is at least producing something resembling a trend.
Most Major Coins Are Still a Mess
Cardano has moved higher and then lower without establishing a particularly clean structure.
Dogecoin remains completely sideways.
Solana is also trapped in messy sideways action despite maintaining elements of a broader downtrend.
TRON has a daily uptrend, but Craig wanted to see a cleaner breakout and stronger hold above resistance before considering a long.
Bitcoin Cash has started moving lower but remains overwhelmingly sideways.
This is the problem across most of the market.
There is movement.
There just isn’t enough clean, repeatable trending behavior to produce consistent setups.
Hyperliquid Gets Craig’s Attention
Hyperliquid was the chart that immediately caught Craig’s attention during today’s analysis.
The weekly and daily charts are beginning to show cleaner bullish structure, including a higher low and higher high.
The 12-hour chart also shows stronger cyclicity than most of the market.
Craig is now watching for a possible pullback that could provide a long entry, potentially on the four-hour timeframe.
So out of the major cryptocurrencies, his positions are becoming fairly simple:
He’s short XRP because the downtrend is working.
He’s watching Hyperliquid for longs because the uptrend is emerging.
Everything else needs to prove itself.
Liquidity Matters More Than Ever
This is one of the most important points Craig made today.
When liquidity becomes this thin, traders need to pay attention to the actual order book before entering altcoin positions.
If your position size is $100,000 but the order book only shows small chunks of $2,000 or $3,000 around your intended entry and exit levels, you have a problem.
You may get significant slippage entering the trade.
You’ll potentially get hit again when exiting.
That can turn what looked like a profitable setup on the chart into a bad trade after execution costs.
In low-liquidity markets, trade the assets where real liquidity exists.
Not every chart that looks good is actually tradable.
Craig Still Wants Lower Prices
Craig remains one of the investors sitting largely in cash and waiting for better long-term entry points.
He would like Bitcoin to break lower and give the market more clarity.
That would accomplish two things.
First, stronger downside momentum would create cleaner trading trends.
Second, lower Bitcoin prices would provide better levels for deploying longer-term capital.
Right now, the market remains in what Craig considers no man’s land.
Not cheap enough to aggressively accumulate.
Not strong enough to confidently chase higher.
Until that changes, patience remains the strategy.
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My Take
Craig’s message this week is less about predicting Bitcoin and more about recognizing the environment you’re trading in.
Liquidity is extremely thin.
Bitcoin remains trapped inside a month-long range.
Most major cryptocurrencies lack clean momentum.
There are opportunities, but they are isolated.
XRP has provided a short.
Hyperliquid may provide a long.
BNB is worth watching.
Everything else can wait.
Trading more because the market is boring isn’t going to create more opportunity.
When conditions are poor, sometimes the best decision is simply to step back and wait for the market to become tradable again.
