Good morning, everybody.
It’s Monday, October 12th, 2026, and Craig Cobb is back with another cryptocurrency market update.
Bitcoin has bounced after testing $80,000, the weekly chart remains in an uptrend, and several cryptocurrencies are beginning to show signs of renewed strength.
But there’s a problem.
The market still isn’t producing the clean trends and reliable trading setups Craig wants to see.
After three consecutive weeks of gains, last week’s pullback wasn’t particularly surprising. The question now is whether Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market can build on the rebound or whether we’re heading into another period of sideways consolidation.
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Bitcoin’s Weekly Uptrend Survives the Selloff
Bitcoin finished last week down approximately 3.2%, although the decline was considerably worse earlier in the week.
At one point, Bitcoin was down roughly 7%, falling toward $80,350 before buyers stepped in and pushed prices higher.
Craig isn’t particularly concerned about the pullback itself.
The market had just experienced three consecutive positive weeks, gaining approximately 5.6%, 4%, and 2.5%.
After that kind of upward movement, a period of selling isn’t unusual.
More importantly, Bitcoin’s weekly chart continues to show an uptrend.
Craig identifies that trend through a series of higher highs and higher lows. Under his methodology, a higher low requires a particular candle structure, not simply a brief dip followed by a rebound.
And by that definition, the weekly uptrend remains intact.
Could Bitcoin fall further?
Absolutely.
Craig believes the market could pull back deeper into its moving-average zone without necessarily damaging the larger bullish structure.
The important thing is whether Bitcoin maintains its established higher low.
As long as that structure survives, the weekly trend remains constructive.
The Three-Month Bitcoin Chart Could Signal the End of the Bear Market
One of Craig’s most important observations continues to come from Bitcoin’s three-month chart.
He’s been discussing this particular candle formation for several weeks, and it remains central to his longer-term outlook.
Bitcoin produced a bullish three-month candle after a significant pullback into its moving-average cradle zone.
According to Craig’s historical research, that formation has frequently appeared near major market bottoms.
He believes the pattern raises the probability that Bitcoin has already established its bear-market low.
But there’s still an important confirmation missing.
Bitcoin needs to break above the high of that bullish three-month candle.
Craig considers that breakout a potentially significant signal that the broader market is transitioning into a sustained recovery.
The monthly chart has also improved.
Bitcoin is no longer in a confirmed monthly downtrend, but Craig isn’t calling it a monthly uptrend either.
For now, the monthly structure is neutral.
That leaves the market in an interesting position.
The longer-term charts are showing increasingly positive developments, but the shorter-term price action hasn’t provided the confirmation Craig wants.
And that’s why he’s remaining patient.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Still Need Cleaner Daily Trends
On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to struggle with resistance.
The market has produced lower highs and lower lows in the shorter term, but Craig doesn’t consider the movement a particularly strong or orderly downtrend.
Instead, Bitcoin is behaving more like a choppy, sideways market.
It has tested resistance, pulled back, and failed to establish the consistent rhythm that makes trend trading attractive.
Craig calls that rhythm cyclicity.
He’s looking for a recognizable pattern of higher highs, higher lows, orderly pullbacks, and continuation moves.
Without that structure, there simply aren’t as many high-quality trading opportunities.
Ethereum is showing similar behavior.
After pulling back toward previous highs on the weekly chart, Ethereum is attempting to climb out of its consolidation zone.
The question is whether ETH can reclaim and hold above its moving averages or whether another leg lower is coming.
Craig isn’t making a firm prediction.
There isn’t enough evidence on the chart yet.
And when the chart doesn’t provide an answer, Craig would rather wait than manufacture a trading opportunity.
Solana, XRP, Zcash and the Rest of the Market
Looking across the major cryptocurrencies, Craig sees a mixture of promising longer-term structures and disappointing shorter-term price action.
BNB and Dogecoin: Both charts remain messy. Dogecoin looks particularly weak, with greater downside pressure and little in the way of clean trading structure. Craig also reminds traders that Dogecoin remains a meme coin, regardless of its market capitalization.
Solana: The weekly chart looks more constructive. SOL has pulled back into an attractive area within an established uptrend, creating the possibility of another higher low. However, Craig wants to see the daily chart continue moving higher before becoming more interested.
XRP: The daily chart shows a clearer downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. There’s little evidence of a confirmed reversal yet.
TRON: The market remains choppy and sideways, offering few compelling setups.
Zcash: ZEC is showing renewed strength after pulling back toward approximately $1,100. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency experienced a substantial rally, retraced toward its 10-period moving average, and is now beginning to move away from that level. Craig sees some encouraging signs.
Hyperliquid: HYPE continues displaying its familiar behavior of strong rallies followed by extended consolidation. But the current chart lacks the clarity needed for a compelling trade.
Monero: XMR has remained relatively strong, benefiting from renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. However, Craig still doesn’t see a particularly clean setup.
The overall message is consistent.
Some cryptocurrencies are improving.
Others remain weak.
But across the market, Craig is still waiting for better technical confirmation.
Total Crypto Market Cap Holds $2.72 Trillion Support
One encouraging development is happening in the broader cryptocurrency market.
Craig had previously identified approximately $2.72 trillion as an important resistance level for total crypto market capitalization.
Following the recent pullback, the market returned to test that area.
And so far, it has held as support.
That’s a constructive development.
Previous resistance becoming support is something traders frequently watch for when evaluating whether an uptrend can continue.
But Craig wants more.
He wants total cryptocurrency market capitalization to break above its recent highs and begin establishing another leg higher.
That would suggest broader participation across the market and potentially create more attractive trading opportunities.
For now, the market has defended an important level without producing a decisive breakout.
Three Altcoins on Craig Cobb’s Watchlist
Although the broader market remains difficult to trade, Craig is watching three specific cryptocurrencies for potential setups.
Stacks (STX)
Craig is monitoring a resistance level that has already been tested several times.
The chart has also produced a higher low, creating the possibility of a breakout setup.
But the structure needs to develop further.
Craig wants to see price build toward resistance with better convergence before considering a trade.
Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
AERO is on Craig’s watchlist for a potential four-hour cradle trade.
He would prefer a slightly deeper pullback toward approximately $0.90, followed by a small bullish candle within the moving-average zone.
That would provide the kind of structured entry he looks for when trading with an established trend.
Aptos (APT)
Aptos is also developing a four-hour uptrend.
Craig is watching for an orderly sequence of higher highs and higher lows, followed by a controlled pullback and bullish continuation signal.
He’s not looking for enormous price movements or speculative breakouts.
He’s looking for clean, repeatable setups with recognizable trend structure.
Craig Cobb’s Take: Sometimes the Best Trade Is No Trade
Craig’s outlook is becoming more constructive, but he’s not ready to declare that the market has fully recovered.
Bitcoin’s weekly trend remains positive.
The three-month chart is showing a potentially important bullish formation.
Solana and Zcash have encouraging technical characteristics.
And total crypto market capitalization has held an important support level.
Those are positive developments.
But the market still needs to prove itself.
Craig wants to see Bitcoin and the broader market break through resistance and establish stronger trends on the two-hour, four-hour, and eight-hour charts.
Until then, the trading opportunities remain limited.
And that’s fine.
Trading isn’t about constantly being in a position.
It’s about waiting for the market to produce an opportunity that fits your strategy.
Craig’s approach remains focused on trading established trends, buying orderly pullbacks, and avoiding unnecessary risk when the charts are unclear.
His outlook is cautiously bullish, but his immediate trading posture is patient.
As Craig puts it:
“There’s a time to be long, there’s a time to be short, there’s a time to go fishing.”
And right now, it might be a good week to go fishing.
Of course, cryptocurrency markets can change quickly.
A breakout above resistance could bring trading opportunities back into focus almost immediately.
Until then, patience remains the priority.
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