THE CYCLE CLOCK ⚓ Sunday, July 26, 2026 A Bitcoin Inspired Weekly · Where we are in the cycle
⏱️ The Clock
Last bottom: Nov 21, 2022 · Last top: Oct 6, 2025 at ~$126,100
Bottom → Top: 1,050 days (prior cycle: 1,061) Top → today: Day 294
Historical top → bottom: 363 days (2018) · 376 days (2022)
Projected window: Oct 4 – Oct 17, 2026
⚠️ Sample size: two. This is a pattern, not a law. Two observations cannot produce a date.
📊 The Seven Signals
🕳️ Capitulation Checklist
✅ Record ETF outflows · ✅ Flagship treasury stress · ✅ First Strategy sale · ✅ Miner capitulation · ✅ Sustained inflow return
⚖️ Why This Cycle May Break The Pattern
Shallower drawdown: -54% vs -84% (2018) and -77% (2022)
Structural bid that didn’t exist before: spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, a US Strategic Reserve
Different macro regime: Warsh’s Fed, no forward guidance
Three ways this resolves: the bottom comes earlier because institutional demand front-runs the pattern · it comes laterbecause a hawkish Fed extends the drawdown · or it’s simply less severe, and the June low at $58,017 already was it.
🎯 What Would Change The Read
🟢 Bull confirmation: monthly close above the 50-month · four consecutive positive ETF weeks · MVRV Z rising off the floor
🔴 Bear extension: loss of the 200-week on a weekly close · ETF flows reverting negative · a new low below $58,017
Stack sats. Stack self-awareness. Both compound. — The Inspirator