July 1: Citi Cuts Bitcoin, Europe's Crypto Rules Arrive, and Why Stablecoins Changed Everything
Good morning everybody.
It’s July already.
Every single year somebody says, “I can’t believe it’s already July.”
And every single year we all nod like it’s some profound observation.
Anyway, let’s talk crypto.
Today’s news is interesting because there’s still a tremendous amount of hopium floating around this market. I’m not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I also don’t think it’s helpful to ignore what’s actually happening.
The headlines continue getting softer.
The forecasts continue getting lower.
And despite all of that, people are still acting like Bitcoin is about to rip to new all-time highs.
Maybe it will.
I just don’t think we’re there yet.
Wall Street Is Lowering Expectations
One of today’s biggest stories comes from Citi.
The bank lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 while also reducing its Ethereum forecast from $3,100 to $2,200.
Now, even $82,000 would represent a solid recovery from current prices.
The question is whether we get there before making another trip lower.
One of our listeners, Malcolm the Earthling, wrote in saying he believes $60,000 was the bottom and that Bitcoin could eventually reach $200,000 next cycle.
I love hearing those predictions.
I genuinely hope he’s right.
But personally, I still think there’s a real possibility Bitcoin hasn’t finished its correction.
The charts continue suggesting lower prices remain on the table.
Politics Still Isn’t Helping Crypto
Another headline that caught my attention involved President Trump’s latest financial disclosure.
The filing reportedly shows roughly $4 billion tied to crypto-related holdings, once again raising ethical questions surrounding the intersection of politics, legislation, and digital assets.
At the same time, Congress continues moving at a snail’s pace.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve remains largely a talking point.
Major crypto legislation remains stuck.
And without meaningful policy wins, there simply aren’t many positive catalysts supporting the market today.
Bitcoin ETFs Just Had Their Worst Month
Institutional demand also continues weakening.
According to CoinDesk, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $4.5 billion in net outflows during June, marking the worst month on record and exceeding the previous record by nearly 30%.
Ethereum ETFs also lost roughly $529 million during the month.
One bright spot?
XRP-related investment products attracted roughly $60 million in inflows.
After years of XRP holders patiently waiting for momentum, at least they’re finally seeing a little institutional interest.
Europe’s Crypto Rulebook Is Finally Here
Today marks the official end of Europe’s MiCA transition period.
Crypto companies operating without full authorization must now either stop operations or significantly restrict their services across the European Union.
What’s fascinating is how quickly regulators are already talking about changing the rules.
MiCA was largely drafted before stablecoins became one of crypto’s most important products.
Now policymakers are reviewing whether the framework needs updates to address tokenization, cross-border issuance, and digital payments.
Technology moves faster than regulation.
It always has.
Why Stablecoins Became So Important
One thing I think newer crypto investors sometimes miss is why stablecoins became popular in the first place.
Originally, they weren’t designed to replace banks.
They were designed to solve a trading problem.
If Bitcoin doubled overnight, traders wanted a way to lock in profits without wiring money back to a traditional bank account every time they sold.
Stablecoins became that bridge.
Over time, people realized those same digital dollars could also power payments, settlements, lending, tokenized assets, and cross-border commerce.
Today, stablecoins aren’t just a crypto tool.
They’re becoming financial infrastructure.
Taiwan Keeps Moving Forward
Taiwan officially passed its first comprehensive crypto and stablecoin framework, requiring platforms to obtain approval from regulators while imposing reserve, audit, and oversight requirements for stablecoin issuers.
This story was particularly interesting to me because I lived in Taiwan while earning my MBA.
Even back then, the country was positioning itself as one of Asia’s more crypto-friendly jurisdictions.
It’s taken years to get here.
But the framework is finally beginning to take shape.
Crypto Hacks Slow Down
Security remained another major theme.
Crypto hacks totaled roughly $75.9 million across 40 separate incidents during June, down modestly from May but still representing significant losses.
The largest exploit involved Humanity Protocol, while several bridge and infrastructure attacks continued reminding the industry that security remains one of crypto’s biggest long-term challenges.
ARK Keeps Buying
Despite all the negativity, ARK Invest continues adding exposure.
The firm purchased more than $75 million worth of crypto-related equities during June, including Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish.
Cathie Wood has built her reputation buying when everyone else is selling.
Whether she’s right this time remains to be seen.
But she’s certainly staying consistent.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin (BTC): $58,694
Ethereum (ETH): $1,574
BNB: $543
XRP: $1.04
Solana (SOL): $75.14
Tron (TRX): $0.316
Hyperliquid (HYPE): $63.17
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.071
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.04 Trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)
My Take
Today’s biggest story isn’t Bitcoin.
It’s stablecoins.
Think about what’s happening all around the world.
Europe is updating MiCA because stablecoins became more important than regulators expected.
Taiwan just built a legal framework around them.
Traditional financial firms are tokenizing assets.
Banks are experimenting with blockchain settlements.
Five years ago, most people thought stablecoins were just a convenient way to trade Bitcoin.
Today they’re becoming one of the foundations of digital finance.
Bitcoin may still be the king of crypto.
But stablecoins are quietly becoming the plumbing.
And in the long run, the plumbing might end up being just as valuable as the house sitting on top of it.