Good morning everybody.
I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend.
I also owe you an apology for missing Monday and Tuesday. I was out camping with the family, got home too late Tuesday night, and Craig Cobb was kind enough to step in and cover yesterday’s market update. One of the things I’ve realized over the past year is that I don’t want to drag my microphone and laptop everywhere I go anymore. Sometimes it’s healthy to unplug for a couple of days, especially during a bear market when staring at prices every hour doesn’t really accomplish much.
Let’s get into today’s news.
Bitcoin Pulls Back as the Iran Ceasefire Collapses
Crypto markets came under pressure after reports that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran had broken down.
President Trump announced the ceasefire was effectively over, while reports indicated renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz following attacks involving Iran. Risk assets responded accordingly, with Bitcoin and the broader crypto market moving lower.
It’s another reminder that geopolitical events continue to influence crypto alongside traditional financial markets. Bitcoin may be a global asset, but it still reacts when investors move away from risk.
India Continues Pushing Back Against Crypto
The Reserve Bank of India is once again signaling that it would prefer stricter limits on cryptocurrency.
According to Reuters, India’s central bank continues supporting policies that would prevent financial institutions from holding, trading, or gaining exposure to crypto assets. Officials also warned that foreign currency-backed stablecoins could threaten India’s monetary sovereignty.
India’s tax authorities also reported that fewer than one-quarter of the 645,000 individuals who conducted crypto transactions during 2023 actually reported those transactions on their tax returns.
Matt took the opportunity to go on a brief tax rant, arguing that while consumption taxes are easier to justify, he remains skeptical of capital gains taxes, particularly when investors can owe substantial taxes on gains but face strict limits on how much investment losses can offset taxable income.
Kalshi Loses Another Round in Court
Prediction market platform Kalshi suffered another legal setback after a federal judge refused to block New York from enforcing its gambling laws while the lawsuit moves forward.
The court ruled that New York’s gambling laws are not automatically overridden by federal commodities law, leaving the central legal question unresolved: are sports prediction contracts financial products, or are they gambling? Kalshi has appealed the decision.
This case continues to be one of the most important regulatory battles facing prediction markets in the United States.
Stablecoins Continue Growing at an Incredible Pace
New data from Dune Analytics highlights just how dominant stablecoins have become.
USDT processed approximately $95 billion in identified commercial payments during the first half of 2026, compared to roughly $14 billion for USDC. USDT accounted for about 92% of business-to-business payment volume, while USDC remained dominant across decentralized finance, including roughly $2.6 trillion in transfer volume on Base and another $1.6 trillion on Ethereum.
Together, USDT and USDC now account for roughly 83% of the entire stablecoin market, which has grown to approximately $315 billion.
These numbers reinforce something we’ve talked about repeatedly on this show.
Stablecoins are no longer just a crypto trading tool.
They’re becoming an increasingly important part of global payments infrastructure.
BitMine Makes Another Massive Ethereum Purchase
Tom Lee’s BitMine reportedly purchased another 40,000 ETH, worth approximately $70 million, according to on-chain data cited by The Block. The company’s latest disclosures indicate it now controls roughly 5.74 million ETH, representing about 4.8% of Ethereum’s circulating supply and approaching its stated goal of owning 5%.
Matt questioned whether that level of concentration should concern Ethereum investors.
He argued that Ethereum’s transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake made it easier for large institutions to accumulate substantial portions of the network, raising long-term questions about decentralization. While he stopped short of suggesting any regulatory intervention, he believes ownership concentration is becoming an issue worth watching.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin (BTC): $62,190
Ethereum (ETH): $1,750
BNB: $565
XRP: $1.08
Solana (SOL): $77.47
Tron (TRX): $0.327
Hyperliquid (HYPE): $68.79
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.072
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.15 Trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
RSI: 42
My Take
The stablecoin numbers continue to stand out to me.
We’re talking about nearly $100 billion in commercial payments through USDT in just six months, trillions of dollars moving through USDC across decentralized finance, and a combined market that’s now worth more than $300 billion.
That’s why I keep coming back to stablecoins.
They’re quietly becoming one of the most important pieces of crypto infrastructure, even while Bitcoin dominates the headlines.