Good morning everybody.
The Federal Reserve did exactly what everyone expected yesterday.
And then immediately started talking about something nobody expected.
Rate hikes.
Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged, but markets quickly focused on the fact that nine of eighteen Fed officials are now penciling in at least one hike this year. Why?
Inflation.
That’s it.
Inflation remains stubborn enough that the conversation has shifted from “when do cuts start?” to “are we sure we’re done hiking?”
I don’t think most people had that on their 2026 bingo card.
Warsh has been pretty consistent on this issue. He wants excess liquidity out of the system. He wants the Fed’s balance sheet reduced. He wants markets standing on their own two feet instead of being propped up by central bank intervention.
Ironically, that’s almost the exact opposite of what many investors expected from a Trump-appointed Fed Chair.
Yet here we are.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Machine Hits a Speed Bump
One of the more important stories flying under the radar involves Strategy.
Its STRC preferred stock fell to roughly $89, well below its intended $100 value.
That matters because Strategy has increasingly relied on preferred stock offerings to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases.
If that funding mechanism starts weakening, investors will naturally begin asking uncomfortable questions.
Can Strategy keep accumulating Bitcoin at the same pace?
Will it need to issue more common shares?
Will it need to find new financing channels?
The Bitcoin treasury strategy only works if capital keeps flowing in.
And right now one of those pipes appears to be narrowing.
AI Infrastructure Continues Printing Money
While crypto continues chopping sideways, AI infrastructure keeps producing real revenue.
Hive shares jumped roughly 10% after securing a $220 million Canadian sovereign AI infrastructure deal involving more than 2,300 Nvidia GPUs.
The agreement is expected to generate around $70 million annually and pushes Hive’s contracted high-performance computing revenue above $100 million.
This is one of the themes we’ve talked about repeatedly.
AI isn’t just a narrative anymore.
These companies are landing contracts.
They’re generating cash flow.
They’re building infrastructure that governments and corporations actually want to buy.
That matters.
Cathie Wood Keeps Flipping Between Coinbase and Robinhood
ARK bought roughly $18 million worth of Coinbase shares while selling about $29 million worth of Robinhood.
If you’ve followed Cathie Wood long enough, this probably doesn’t surprise you.
She seems to bounce back and forth between those two stocks constantly.
Coinbase fell around 2.6%.
Robinhood jumped roughly 9%.
And every time I see Robinhood moving higher, I get a fresh reminder of another investment opportunity I exited way too early.
Apparently SpaceX isn’t the only thing giving me FOMO lately.
Prediction Markets Are Fighting For Their Future
One of the more interesting regulatory battles is developing around prediction markets.
U.S. gambling groups, tribal organizations, and labor groups are reportedly pushing lawmakers to explicitly prohibit sports and casino-style event contracts from prediction market platforms.
Their argument is straightforward.
Protect existing gambling frameworks.
My interpretation is also straightforward.
Protect existing revenue streams.
That’s not necessarily wrong. Every industry protects its turf.
But let’s at least be honest about what’s happening.
This is a fight over who gets to control the bag.
FTX Isn’t Finished Yet
If you thought the FTX saga was finally over, think again.
Michelle Bond, the wife of former FTX executive Ryan Salame, will face campaign finance charges after a judge rejected efforts to dismiss the case.
Prosecutors allege Salame helped structure a consulting agreement involving roughly $540,000 tied to Bond’s congressional campaign.
Salame is already serving a prison sentence after pleading guilty to illegal political contribution charges and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business.
The exchange may be gone.
The fallout isn’t.
The Dollar Isn’t Helping Bitcoin
Another potential headwind for crypto is the U.S. dollar.
The Dollar Index continues pushing higher.
Historically, a stronger dollar creates pressure for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
If you’re looking for reasons why Bitcoin hasn’t been able to build sustained momentum, you can add a strengthening dollar to the list.
Not exactly what bulls wanted to see.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin: $64,315
Ethereum: $1,747
BNB: $591
XRP: $1.16
Solana: $71.57
Tron: $0.319
Hyperliquid: $71.91
Dogecoin: $0.084
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.2 Trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Fear)
My Take
I won’t be here tomorrow because I’m going camping.
Which sounds simple until I explain how I got here.
My neighbor was selling a camper.
I bought the camper.
Then I discovered my Subaru couldn’t actually tow the camper.
Which meant buying the camper somehow resulted in buying an entirely different vehicle.
That is how my brain works.
For years I thought my Subaru could tow 3,500 pounds.
Turns out it could tow about 2,400.
The camper weighs about 2,200 pounds.
Close enough that I wasn’t willing to risk it.
So now I own a 2017 Lexus GX460.
A V8.
During some of the highest gas prices I can remember.
Outstanding decision-making.
That said, the Subaru deserves some respect.
I bought it as a flood-recovery vehicle for about $8,000, drove it across the country, put roughly 80,000 miles on it, replaced an alternator and an air-conditioning compressor, and that’s basically it.
For a vehicle everyone told me was a gamble, it turned out to be one of the best purchases I’ve ever made.
Now it’s time for something new.
So wish me luck.
This weekend I’ll be learning how to back a camper into a campsite, hook everything up correctly, and pretend I know what I’m doing.
If all goes well, I’ll be back next week.
If not, you’ll probably find me somewhere in Ohio trying to figure out why nothing is connected to the right hose.