Good morning everybody.
Sorry I wasn’t here yesterday. I spent about 13 hours helping my dad cut down a tree, split it, and turn it into a mountain of smaller logs. But we’re back today.
Bitcoin is under pressure again, and the biggest reason isn’t coming from inside crypto. It’s coming from the broader economy.
Treasuries Are Competing With Bitcoin
The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 4.7%, and that creates a difficult environment for speculative assets.
If investors can earn nearly 5% in a relatively stable asset, there is less incentive to take additional risk in Bitcoin, especially during a bear market. At the same time, markets are assigning roughly a 40% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week, with another hike increasingly likely before the end of 2026.
That changes the entire investment landscape.
Stocks already look expensive, particularly large AI companies trading at elevated earnings multiples. The Buffett Indicator is above 200%, Warren Buffett continues holding large amounts of cash, and gold has also struggled. For investors looking for somewhere to park money, Treasuries are becoming harder to ignore.
The counterweight has been Bitcoin ETFs. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $1 billion over the past seven days, helping support Bitcoin despite the broader macroeconomic pressure.
Housing Affordability Keeps Getting Worse
Housing is another part of the economy that continues to look distorted.
Even if interest rates stay high or rise further, housing prices may continue climbing because construction is slowing and homeowners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell. That keeps available housing inventory tight.
The average income reportedly needed to qualify for a mortgage increased from approximately $93,000 in January to around $109,000, while the average new home price has reached roughly $540,000.
The economy is sending investors in multiple directions at once. Rates are high, stocks are expensive, housing remains unaffordable, and speculative assets are still trying to find a floor.
BitMEX Is Shutting Down
BitMEX told customers that it will shut down operations on September 23, 2026, ending an 11-year run for one of the most influential exchanges in crypto history.
The exchange helped invent and popularize the crypto perpetual swap, a product that later became central to the global derivatives market.
New registrations will be stopped, users will be encouraged to close positions and withdraw funds, and any remaining contracts will be forcibly closed before the final shutdown.
If you’re still using BitMEX, it is time to get your funds and positions in order.
BNY Moves Toward 24-Hour Treasury Settlement
BNY plans to support round-the-clock settlement for traditional and tokenized U.S. Treasuries by 2027.
The bank has already tested after-hours Treasury activity connected to stablecoin reserves and intends to use tokenized Treasuries on private blockchains to extend settlement across Asian, European, and U.S. trading hours.
This is another example of blockchain technology moving deeper into traditional financial infrastructure.
Democrats Say the CLARITY Act Still Falls Short
CoinDesk reported that the latest draft of the CLARITY Act includes an ethics provision agreed to by the White House and President Trump, but several Democratic senators argue the bill remains inadequate.
Senators Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock are seeking stronger protections covering ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest, and market integrity.
The proposed ethics provisions would limit certain crypto-related conflicts of interest involving the president and senior officials, but those rules would expire in 2029. Regulators would also receive one year to implement them.
Republicans are presenting the language as a meaningful ethics provision. Democrats say it is temporary and too weak. Negotiations are expected to continue.
Three Bridges Lose More Than $35 Million
At least three cross-chain systems were drained of more than $35 million within approximately six hours.
The largest loss involved AFX Trade, an Arbitrum-based decentralized perpetual exchange, which lost approximately $24.15 million after validator signing keys were compromised.
The attacker used enough compromised validator signatures to authorize a USDC withdrawal, moved the funds to Ethereum, and exchanged them for approximately 12,467 ETH, nearly emptying AFX’s total value locked.
A second Ethereum bridge lost approximately $7.54 million, while B² Network lost around $3.86 million.
AFX said its smart contracts functioned as designed. The failure came from compromised validator credentials rather than a flaw in the contract logic itself.
Is Stealing $24 Million Even Worth It?
The technical hack is only the first part of the problem for the attacker.
Moving millions of dollars in stolen crypto into a usable form is far more complicated. Ethereum transactions are public, exchanges monitor suspicious funds, and converting that amount through an over-the-counter buyer would likely require accepting a significant discount.
Even if the attacker successfully moves the money, they may spend the rest of their life wondering whether law enforcement has found them.
Twenty-four million dollars is a tremendous amount of money. But is it worth the possibility of decades in prison, extradition, or getting arrested in a country where the legal system and prison conditions may be far worse than anything in the United States?
I’m going to say no.
Bitcoin Security Consortium Prepares for Quantum Risks
Strategy, Ark Invest, BlackRock, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Galaxy are among the founding members of the new Bitcoin Security Consortium.
The organization has secured approximately $15 million in member pledges over the next three years and will focus on the long-term security and resilience of the Bitcoin network, including preparing for potential quantum computing threats.
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin is about to be broken by a quantum computer. It means major institutions are trying to address the threat before it becomes an emergency.
Technological breakthroughs often appear suddenly to the public. Bitcoin seemed to arrive out of nowhere. Generative AI felt the same way when consumers first gained access to it. Quantum computing may follow a similar pattern.
The public may not see a slow progression toward the breakthrough. One day, a functioning system may simply appear, and the industry will have to respond quickly.
Alphabet Raises AI Spending Again
Alphabet reported revenue growth and increased its 2026 capital spending forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion, up from its previous estimate of $180 billion to $190 billion.
The company cited continued capacity constraints caused by AI demand.
Asian semiconductor stocks moved higher following the report. TSMC rose approximately 3.6%, while Samsung and SK Hynix each gained more than 2%.
The AI infrastructure buildout is continuing, even as investors debate whether valuations and spending have already moved too far.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin: $64,891
Ethereum: $1,899
Tether: #3
BNB: $567
USDC: #5
XRP: $1.11
Solana: $76.78
TRON: $0.326
Hyperliquid: $59.27
Dogecoin: $0.070
Total Market Cap: $2.2 trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 37, Fear
RSI: 46
My Take
The biggest story today is still the macro environment.
Bitcoin ETF inflows are strong, but they are fighting against a market where investors can earn almost 5% in Treasuries without taking Bitcoin-level risk. Stocks look expensive, housing remains difficult to afford, and the possibility of another interest-rate increase adds even more pressure.
The ETF demand is keeping Bitcoin supported, but it may not be enough to create a new bull market by itself. Until the broader economic picture becomes clearer, Bitcoin is going to keep competing with safer assets for the same pool of money.
Happy Hodling, Everyone.