Good morning everybody.
Crypto feels stuck right now.
The liquidations have cooled. The panic selling has slowed. The volatility has eased. But nobody seems particularly excited either.
Bitcoin is hanging around $61,000. Traders are still nervous. Institutions are still debating where things go next. And meanwhile, some of the biggest conversations in crypto aren’t about price at all.
They’re about power.
Who controls the money?
Who controls the rails?
And who gets to decide what the future of digital dollars looks like?
Bitcoin Derivatives Are Cooling Down
CoinDesk reported that derivatives volume fell 27% over the past 24 hours to roughly $141 billion, while open interest actually rose about 2% to $106 billion.
Liquidations came in around $105 million, the lowest level in roughly two weeks.
That’s important because it suggests the market is calming down after the recent wave of volatility.
The downside pressure hasn’t disappeared.
But the forced selling appears to be slowing.
For now, traders seem to be waiting for the next major catalyst.
Strategy Gets A Warning
CryptoQuant released a report arguing that Strategy should slow down its Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves.
The concern centers around STRC, Strategy’s preferred stock, which has reportedly fallen about 17.5% below its $100 par value.
At the same time, annual dividend obligations have surged to roughly $1.2 billion.
According to the report, dividend coverage has fallen from more than seven years to roughly fourteen months.
Their recommendation?
Stop aggressively buying Bitcoin for now and rebuild reserves toward approximately $2.8 billion before resuming large-scale accumulation.
In other words, pump the brakes.
The Bitcoin treasury model works until financing becomes more expensive.
And investors are starting to pay attention.
21Shares Thinks Bitcoin Can Recover
Not everyone is bearish.
21Shares released its mid-year crypto outlook and remains optimistic despite Bitcoin’s decline from roughly $126,000 in late 2025.
Their base case calls for Bitcoin to recover toward $100,000 by the end of the year.
The firm also noted that crypto ETP assets under management remain around $140 billion, with approximately 1.25 million Bitcoin held inside ETP structures.
That’s still a massive amount of institutional exposure.
The question is whether those investors are willing to keep buying if markets remain weak.
Standard Chartered Gets Bullish On Aave
One of the more ambitious predictions came from Standard Chartered.
The bank believes Aave could reach $3,500 by 2030.
At first glance that sounds insane.
But when you actually run the numbers, it becomes a lot less crazy.
Aave currently sits around a $1 billion market cap.
Even a 25x move would place it around $25 billion.
In crypto terms, that’s entirely possible.
The bank argues that tokenized assets used in DeFi could grow dramatically over the next several years, directly benefiting lending protocols like Aave.
Maybe they’re right.
Maybe they’re wrong.
But at least this is one prediction that doesn’t immediately collapse under a basic market cap calculation.
Congress Moves Against CBDCs
One of the biggest political stories in crypto happened quietly.
The House passed legislation containing a ban on a Federal Reserve-issued CBDC through December 31, 2030.
The Senate had already passed the same measure.
Now the bill heads to President Trump’s desk.
And honestly, the more I think about this, the more skeptical I become.
I used to be firmly anti-CBDC.
I understood the concerns about surveillance.
I understood the concerns about programmable money.
I understood the concerns about government control.
But now I’m starting to wonder if we’re simply replacing one form of control with another.
Because while lawmakers are blocking a Federal Reserve digital dollar, they’re simultaneously opening the door for private stablecoin issuers.
Circle.
Tether.
Banks.
Financial institutions.
Private corporations.
So the question becomes simple:
Are we protecting privacy?
Or are we privatizing the dollar?
Because those are not necessarily the same thing.
Law Enforcement Pushes Back
Meanwhile, four major law enforcement organizations sent a joint letter warning that parts of the Clarity Act could create oversight gaps.
The groups argued that broad exemptions for certain developers and facilitators could make it more difficult to investigate illicit crypto activity.
Whether you agree with them or not, it’s another reminder that regulators, lawmakers, and law enforcement still have very different visions for what crypto should become.
Japan Launches A Yen Stablecoin
SBI Group launched what it describes as Japan’s first trust-bank-backed yen stablecoin.
The token will be issued through SBI Shinsei Trust Bank and distributed through licensed crypto exchanges.
This is another example of something we’ve talked about repeatedly.
Stablecoins are no longer an experiment.
They’re becoming infrastructure.
And increasingly, they’re becoming national infrastructure.
Ethereum Foundation Cuts Staff
The Ethereum Foundation announced a 20% reduction in staff, cutting roughly 54 positions.
The organization is restructuring around five core areas:
Protocol development
User access
Community engagement
Institutional adoption
Operations
Vitalik Buterin has also indicated the Foundation plans to reduce spending and move toward a more sustainable endowment-style funding model.
In other words, even Ethereum is focusing on efficiency.
Bitcoin Activity Is Growing
One surprisingly bullish story came from the Bitcoin network itself.
Bitcoin processed more than 820,000 transactions in a single day as Rune-related activity surged.
Runes generated more than 600,000 daily transactions and accounted for roughly 25% of all Bitcoin transaction fees.
Bitcoin’s price may be struggling.
But the network itself is seeing meaningful usage.
And that’s something worth watching.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin (BTC): $61,539
Ethereum (ETH): $1,650
BNB: $570
XRP: $1.07
Solana (SOL): $68.80
Tron (TRX): $0.328
Hyperliquid (HYPE): $60.43
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.077
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.1 Trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 19 (Extreme Fear)
My Take
The story that keeps grabbing my attention isn’t Bitcoin.
It’s stablecoins.
Five years ago the conversation was whether governments would create digital currencies.
Now the conversation is whether governments should be prevented from creating digital currencies while private companies do it instead.
That’s a very different debate.
And I’m not convinced people fully appreciate the difference.
A lot of crypto supporters spent years warning about programmable government money.
Fair enough.
But programmable corporate money can become just as powerful.
Maybe more powerful.
At least governments answer to voters eventually.
Corporations answer to shareholders.
So when I see Congress banning CBDCs while simultaneously building frameworks for private stablecoin dominance, I don’t automatically celebrate.
I start asking questions.
Because sometimes the biggest regulatory victories aren’t victories at all.
Sometimes they’re just power changing hands.