Good morning everybody.
Bitcoin finally lost the fight.
For the past several days we’ve been talking about that $59,000 level as if it were the heavyweight champion of the world. Bitcoin kept getting knocked down, getting back up, and trying to defend it.
Well, the defense didn’t last.
ETF outflows continue mounting, fear is rising, and the market is looking for answers. But before everyone starts screaming that crypto is dead again, let’s take a step back.
Because we’ve been here before.
Bitcoin ETFs See Major Outflows
The biggest story this morning is continued weakness in institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $469 million in net outflows, bringing cumulative flows down to their weakest level since July 2025. It marks the 30th-largest single day of redemptions since U.S. spot ETFs launched in January 2024.
The message from institutions is clear: risk appetite has cooled.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is finished, but it does make any near-term recovery significantly more difficult.
Japan Is Becoming Stablecoin Central
While Bitcoin struggles, stablecoins continue quietly expanding.
Circle and Nomura announced plans to launch USDC-based settlement and corporate payment services in Japan beginning in 2027, allowing businesses to move money across borders using USDC.
At the same time, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin received regulatory approval under Japan’s Payment Services Act and will launch through SBI VC Trade.
Taken together, Japan is quickly becoming one of the world’s most important regulated stablecoin markets.
Between USDC, RLUSD, yen-backed stablecoins, and bank-issued digital money, the country is building the infrastructure for blockchain-based payments at a remarkable pace.
Trump Delays The CBDC Ban
One of yesterday’s biggest stories took another turn.
President Trump has reportedly refused to sign the housing package containing the four-year Federal Reserve CBDC ban until Congress advances unrelated election legislation, including the SAVE Act.
The delay creates uncertainty around both the CBDC ban and the broader Clarity Act timeline.
With Congress expected to leave Washington in roughly five weeks for the campaign season, any legislative delays could push major crypto market structure reforms further into the future.
Politics, once again, is slowing crypto policy.
Another Reminder About Security
Crypto security never takes a day off.
Genesis warned users after its official X account was compromised and used to promote fake reward links.
Meanwhile, Cardano wallet provider Second Five confirmed that attackers exploited flaws in its wallet generation software, draining approximately 16 million ADA from hundreds of wallets before the team was able to intervene.
The lesson hasn’t changed in fifteen years.
Always verify links.
Always verify websites.
Always verify wallets.
Because attackers are counting on you not paying attention.
Bitcoin Holders Are Feeling The Pain
Glassnode reported that 10.83 million Bitcoin are currently being held at a loss, the highest level ever recorded.
At the same time, long-term holders now control nearly 14.8 million Bitcoin, with roughly 37% of those holdings currently underwater.
Historically, similar conditions have often developed near major market bottoms.
That doesn’t mean the bottom is in.
But it does suggest that long-term conviction remains surprisingly strong despite the recent selloff.
Quantum Computing Is Becoming A Real Conversation
One topic that continues gaining attention is quantum computing.
Jameson Lopp recently published the second installment of his series examining how quantum computers could eventually threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography, focusing specifically on attack game theory and the incentives surrounding exposed wallets.
What’s notable isn’t simply the research itself.
It’s that respected Bitcoin developers who once viewed quantum computing as a distant concern are now spending considerable time thinking about how the network should prepare.
The threat may still be years away.
But the planning has already begun.
Prediction Markets Keep Growing
Prediction market platform Kalshi is reportedly seeking new funding at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double its previous valuation.
If successful, the raise would significantly widen the gap between Kalshi and Polymarket, whose valuation has reportedly been discussed around $15 billion.
Prediction markets continue becoming one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors, despite ongoing regulatory battles around the world.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin (BTC): $60,970
Ethereum (ETH): $1,623
BNB: $565
XRP: $1.06
Solana (SOL): $67.80
Tron (TRX): $0.326
Hyperliquid (HYPE): $62.60
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.075
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.1 Trillion
Fear & Greed Index: 18 (Extreme Fear)
RSI: 42
My Take
One statistic really stood out to me today.
More than 10.8 million Bitcoin are currently being held at a loss.
That’s a painful number.
But it’s also a reminder that perspective matters.
If you bought Bitcoin near $20,000 in late 2017, you watched it collapse by more than 80%.
Four years later, even if you didn’t sell the absolute top, you still roughly tripled your money.
If you bought the 2021 peak around $69,000 and eventually watched Bitcoin reach $125,000, you still generated an outstanding long-term annual return despite buying at literally the worst possible time.
The point is simple.
Bitcoin has never been a straight line.
It has always been a cycle.
Could this cycle be different?
Absolutely.
Could quantum computing eventually change everything?
Maybe.
Could stablecoins become a bigger story than Bitcoin itself over the next decade?
That’s becoming increasingly possible.
But if you’re investing with an eight-year time horizon instead of an eight-week time horizon, today’s panic probably won’t matter nearly as much as it feels like it does.
Sometimes the hardest part of investing isn’t buying.
It’s waiting.