Good morning, everybody.
It’s your Daily Crypto News for Friday, October 9th, 2026. My name is Matt.
Go Guards!
The Cleveland Guardians won yesterday, and we’re heading to Game 5 of the ALDS.
But we’re not here to talk about baseball. We’re here to talk about Bitcoin, which just survived another major test of $80,000.
And when I say survived, I mean Bitcoin bounced.
I don’t necessarily mean it recovered.
There’s a difference.
We’ve been watching Bitcoin trade between roughly $82K and $87K for weeks. The goal was to break above $87K, move toward $89K to $90K, and eventually establish that higher range as support.
And when I talk about support and resistance, I’m not talking about some thin piece of paper sitting exactly at $90,000.
I think of it more like a sheet of ice covering water. You have to break through that entire resistance zone, which might run from $89K to $90K, and then establish that area as the new floor.
That’s what we wanted.
Instead, Bitcoin broke below $82K and tested $80K.
And that changes things.
I’m starting to think we’re entering a different trading range, potentially somewhere between $74K and $80K, unless Bitcoin can stage a more convincing recovery.
I don’t think we’re out of the woods.
And frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Bitcoin trading in the $70,000s relatively soon.
$1.2 Billion in Crypto Liquidations as Oil and Iran Drive the Market
The big story yesterday was the liquidation cascade.
Approximately $1.2 billion in leveraged crypto positions was liquidated over 24 hours, with more than $1 billion reportedly coming from long positions.
Here’s how some of that broke down:
Ethereum: approximately $356 million in liquidations.
Bitcoin: approximately $298 million.
Solana: approximately $71 million.
XRP: approximately $34 million.
Ethereum got absolutely slammed.
And this is what happens when too much leverage builds up in the system.
People are betting that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will continue moving higher. Then something changes in the macro environment, prices start dropping, leveraged positions get liquidated, and those liquidations create even more selling pressure.
Suddenly, a relatively normal move becomes a much larger one.
Listener Obsidian Enoch wrote in with an observation that I think is pretty accurate.
He said this pullback feels more like macroeconomic pressure than anything specific to cryptocurrency. Leverage is getting flushed out, while oil prices, Treasury yields and the dollar are driving risk assets.
I agree with him.
Enoch, you’re getting a shout-out today.
Because that’s exactly what I’m watching.
The macroeconomic pressure chain looks something like this:
Iran escalation leads to higher oil prices, which increases inflation concerns, pushes Treasury yields higher, raises expectations for Federal Reserve tightening and puts pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
That’s the problem.
Brent crude is still trading above $100 a barrel, although it fell more than 1% Friday morning.
The reported catalyst for Bitcoin’s rebound was President Trump’s comments suggesting the United States would not launch strikes against Iran before the midterm elections.
That’s how the rebound is being explained in the news.
But I have some serious questions about that.
First of all, why would military decisions be based on an election calendar?
If American personnel are being attacked and there’s a legitimate military objective, then what exactly are we waiting for?
Either there’s business to handle or there isn’t.
If there isn’t, then get out of there.
If there is, then make the decision based on the actual circumstances, not whether an election is coming up.
What worries me is the possibility that we’re simply delaying a much larger confrontation until after the midterms.
And if that happens, oil could become an even bigger problem.
I don’t know what’s going to happen.
But I do know that geopolitical uncertainty is having a substantial impact on financial markets right now.
Bitcoin’s New Support and Resistance Levels
The immediate question is whether $80K can become a reliable floor.
I’m not necessarily concerned about Bitcoin briefly trading at $79K or $79,500. I look at support as a range, not one exact number.
For me, the important area is approximately $79K to $81K.
If Bitcoin can stabilize there, then we need to start reclaiming the $83K to $84K area.
That would be the first sign that buyers are beginning to regain control.
But right now, I think we’re in a downtrend.
And if I were taking a bet, I’d be looking for Bitcoin to spend some time in the $70,000s.
Possibly lower, depending on what happens after the midterm elections.
The other problem is that institutional money has started moving out.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced another day of outflows Thursday, following nearly half a billion dollars in withdrawals Wednesday.
Together, that represents roughly three-quarters of a billion dollars leaving Bitcoin ETFs over two sessions.
That’s not encouraging.
And it makes a sustained recovery much more difficult when the broader macro environment is already working against us.
MARA Moves Bitcoin as Mining Companies Pivot Toward AI
Let’s get into some institutional and corporate news.
Bitcoin miner MARA transferred approximately $81 million worth of Bitcoin, nearly 1,000 BTC, to addresses associated with Galaxy Digital.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean MARA sold those coins.
Moving Bitcoin between wallets or transferring it to a financial services company is not confirmation of a sale.
But it is worth watching because MARA’s Bitcoin treasury has reportedly been shrinking.
The company held approximately 53,000 BTC in February, compared with around 35,000 by August.
And honestly, that’s part of the Bitcoin mining business.
Mining companies have enormous infrastructure costs.
They have machines.
They have electricity bills.
They have facilities.
They have employees.
And when Bitcoin’s price falls while mining difficulty remains high, their economics can deteriorate pretty quickly.
They’re still paying to operate all that equipment, but the Bitcoin they’re earning is worth less.
So what happens?
They sell some of their Bitcoin reserves to cover operating costs.
They shut down less efficient machines.
They reduce spending.
They try to survive until the market improves.
That’s the cycle.
And this is why the growing relationship between Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence is so interesting.
Mining companies already have access to power infrastructure, data centers and computing facilities.
Some are now looking at ways to use that infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing.
The economics aren’t identical, and converting mining facilities into AI data centers isn’t necessarily simple or cheap.
But the opportunity is there.
Instead of depending almost entirely on Bitcoin mining profitability, these companies could potentially develop additional revenue streams from AI infrastructure.
And that could help smooth out some of the enormous volatility in the mining business.
Bitcoin mining has always been cyclical.
You make money during the good times, and then you spend the bad times trying not to bleed out.
If AI can help some of these companies generate revenue throughout the cycle, that’s a significant development.
Robinhood and T. Rowe Price Explore Tokenized ETFs
Robinhood is also exploring a tokenized version of an actively managed ETF with T. Rowe Price.
T. Rowe Price is one of the largest traditional asset managers in the world, with approximately $1.9 trillion in assets under management.
The proposed product would be represented as a stock token on Robinhood’s blockchain infrastructure.
This is another example of tokenization moving deeper into traditional finance.
We’ve already discussed tokenized Treasuries, public stocks, private-market exposure and cash-management funds.
Now we’re talking about actively managed investment products.
The bigger picture is that more traditional financial assets are being considered for blockchain-based issuance, ownership records and trading.
Thailand Approves Local Crypto ETFs as the UK Targets Sanctions Evasion
Thailand’s securities regulators have approved a framework allowing domestic asset managers to launch locally listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
The new rules are scheduled to take effect on October 16th.
That’s another market opening up regulated access to crypto investment products.
And I thought Thailand already had something like this, but apparently this is the new framework for locally listed products.
Meanwhile, the British government has imposed sanctions on three cryptocurrency exchanges and two payment-service centers accused of helping facilitate Russian sanctions evasion.
Two of the services reportedly handled transactions connected to the Kremlin-backed A7 financial network.
The sanctions reflect the continuing effort by Western governments to target financial infrastructure they believe is being used to move money around existing restrictions.
And that’s going to remain a major regulatory and enforcement issue for cryptocurrency, particularly as stablecoins and international payment networks become more widely used.
Vitalik Buterin Responds to the AI Cryptography Debate
Now let’s get back to one of the most interesting technology discussions we’ve had this week.
Yesterday, we talked about Ethereum researcher Justin Drake warning that advances in artificial intelligence and mathematics could eventually create new threats to the cryptography securing Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.
His argument wasn’t that these systems have already been broken.
They haven’t.
His concern was that improvements in AI-assisted mathematical research could justify preparing earlier than previously expected for potential vulnerabilities.
And now Vitalik Buterin has weighed in with a more measured position.
Essentially, don’t panic, but take the issue seriously.
And that’s exactly what I was saying yesterday.
Have the conversation.
Don’t dismiss the entire subject as FUD simply because somebody raised a concern about the security of existing cryptographic systems.
We’re talking about an enormous amount of money secured by these technologies.
Individuals.
Companies.
Institutions.
Governments.
If there is even a plausible risk that future advances in computing could threaten the cryptography protecting those assets, we should investigate it.
That doesn’t mean AI can currently recover Bitcoin private keys from public keys. There is no demonstrated capability to do that.
But it does mean researchers should continue evaluating the assumptions underlying these systems.
And I think there’s a larger discussion here about how people react to AI breakthroughs.
We’ve seen stories about AI systems helping solve difficult mathematical and scientific problems.
And whenever that happens, there’s often a debate about whether the AI deserves credit or whether the scientists whose work trained the system deserve the recognition.
Look, I understand the importance of acknowledging people’s contributions.
But if I learned mathematics from a teacher, who learned from another teacher, who learned from another teacher, and then I went out and solved a mathematical problem nobody had solved before, I would still be the one who solved it.
Of course, I might thank my teachers.
But the breakthrough still happened.
And that’s the part I think people are missing when it comes to AI.
The important thing is what these systems might allow us to accomplish.
We’re talking about potential breakthroughs in genetics, medicine, cancer research, longevity and other scientific fields.
Imagine what could happen if we put a serious, coordinated effort into using AI to solve some of those problems.
Instead, we spend an enormous amount of time arguing about whether AI should be allowed to do certain things, whether it received proper attribution and whether we should slow everything down.
I understand there are legitimate ethical concerns.
But I also think we’re overlooking the potential benefits.
Can we use these systems to help cure cancer?
Can we use them to accelerate scientific discoveries?
Can we figure out problems that have been sitting in front of humanity for generations?
That would be nice.
And no, before anybody takes me seriously, I don’t actually have evidence that Claude has secretly cured cancer and Anthropic is waiting until its IPO to announce it.
That’s a joke.
But it gets at my broader point.
AI is becoming an incredibly powerful tool.
Let’s use it.
And when it comes to cryptocurrency security, let’s make sure we’re taking advantage of those capabilities to strengthen our systems rather than pretending potential risks don’t exist.
Solana Targets Faster Blocks as XRP Ledger Expands Account Permissions
Solana is moving toward another performance improvement.
The network is completing a multistage upgrade intended to reduce its target block time from approximately 400 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds.
That’s essentially cutting the target time in half.
The final change is scheduled for approximately 3 p.m. UTC.
If successfully implemented, the improvement could help reduce the time between blocks and further improve the network’s responsiveness.
The XRP Ledger also activated an upgrade called Permission Delegation v1.1 on Thursday.
This is a particularly interesting development for institutional custody and financial operations.
The upgrade allows an account owner to authorize separate accounts to perform specific functions without giving those accounts unrestricted control over the primary account’s private keys.
Think about how a normal company operates.
You don’t give every employee access to every bank account.
You don’t give everybody the ability to move every dollar the company owns.
You have different permission levels.
Some employees can initiate payments.
Others can approve them.
Some can access records.
Others can manage compliance.
The same basic concept applies here.
A company using the XRP Ledger could potentially separate payment operations, compliance responsibilities and treasury control.
The primary account’s keys could remain secured while other authorized accounts perform limited functions.
And that makes sense.
I’ve talked about how blockchain infrastructure needs to accommodate the way institutions actually operate.
Banks and corporations don’t function by giving every employee unrestricted access to everything.
They use permissions.
They use controls.
They separate responsibilities.
And crypto infrastructure increasingly needs to support those same operational requirements.
That’s a legitimate problem being addressed.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin is sitting around $83,000, up approximately 1% over 24 hours, but down roughly 4.2% over seven days.
Ethereum is having a rough week, trading around $2,496, down nearly 10% over seven days.
USDT remains number three.
BNB is around $741, down approximately 2.5%.
XRP is sitting around $1.38, essentially flat over the past 24 hours.
USDC remains number six.
Solana is around $110, down approximately 2.1%.
TRON is approximately $0.332, down around 0.6%.
Hyperliquid is trading around $85.63, up approximately 0.5%.
Zcash is around $1,223, up approximately 1.8% over 24 hours, but still down around 11% for the week.
And that weekly performance is really the story.
Bitcoin is down more than 4%.
Ethereum is down nearly 10%.
Uniswap is down approximately 18%.
The CoinMarketCap 20 Index is down around 5.5%.
A lot of the altcoin market is showing double-digit weekly losses.
We’re having a rough week.
And I don’t necessarily think it’s over.
My Take
I think we’re entering a more difficult period for Bitcoin.
Yesterday’s move back above $80K was encouraging, but I’m calling it a bounce, not a recovery.
We lost the $82K to $83K support area that had held for weeks.
We saw approximately $1.2 billion in liquidations.
ETF investors have been pulling money out.
Oil remains above $100.
And geopolitical uncertainty is creating a lot of additional pressure.
That’s not an environment where I’m particularly confident we’re about to break through $90K.
I think we could see Bitcoin around $74K to $75K as we approach the midterm elections.
And depending on the election results and what happens geopolitically afterward, I wouldn’t rule out lower prices.
Now, here’s where I think politics could become a significant factor.
My prediction is that Democrats win the House but not the Senate.
And I think the market will be able to digest that outcome.
But if Democrats win both chambers, I think there’s a possibility that crypto markets react negatively.
Not necessarily because Democrats are inherently bad for crypto.
It’s because I expect congressional investigations and political pressure surrounding President Trump, World Liberty Financial and the administration’s relationship with the cryptocurrency industry.
I think Democrats would focus heavily on Trump and his crypto-related businesses.
And in the process, there’s a possibility that broader crypto legislation, regulation and companies become caught up in those political fights.
That’s what concerns me.
Even if the primary target is Trump, the collateral damage could extend to the rest of the industry.
If markets begin pricing in that possibility ahead of the election, I could see additional selling pressure.
And in a particularly negative scenario, I wouldn’t rule out Bitcoin moving into the $60,000s or even $50,000s.
That’s not my base-case forecast. It’s a risk scenario based on how I think the political and regulatory environment could develop.
On the other hand, if Republicans retain control of both chambers, I think markets could respond more positively because the immediate risk of congressional confrontation over the administration’s crypto policies would be reduced.
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin automatically goes up.
We’d still have oil.
We’d still have Iran.
We’d still have Treasury yields, inflation and Federal Reserve policy.
Those factors don’t disappear because one party wins an election.
But I think the market would have one less major political uncertainty to price in.
Again, my prediction is Democrats take the House but not the Senate.
We’ll see what happens.
For now, I’m watching $80K as the immediate support zone and $83K to $84K as the first area Bitcoin needs to reclaim.
If that doesn’t happen, I think we need to start taking the possibility of another leg lower much more seriously.
Have a great Friday.