Good morning everybody.
It’s September 1st, 2026.
Bitcoin is still hanging around $77,000 to $78,000, but today’s biggest story isn’t really Bitcoin. It’s the bond market.
Government bond yields are rising around the world. That matters because Bitcoin isn’t trading in isolation. When investors can earn increasingly attractive returns from government debt, capital has another place to go. At the same time, higher yields tighten financial conditions and make the Fed’s fight against inflation considerably more important.
So while Bitcoin keeps trying to figure out whether $80,000 was the beginning of something bigger or just another bear-market rally, the macro environment is getting more difficult.
The Bond Market Is the Story Today
The U.S. Treasury yield has pushed toward 4.8%, its highest level in roughly a year.
But this isn’t only an American move.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has reached roughly 3%, Germany’s 10-year is around 3.36%, and the UK has moved toward 5.25%. Oil is also pushing toward $90 a barrel.
Why does any of this matter for Bitcoin?
Because higher government bond yields compete for capital.
If investors can earn close to 5% holding government debt, some money that might otherwise move into risk assets has a very attractive alternative.
Then add higher oil prices.
Higher energy costs can keep inflation elevated. Sticky inflation gives the Fed another reason to keep monetary policy tight.
That’s why the possibility of another Fed rate hike has gone from a fringe idea to something markets are seriously considering. The probability discussed in today’s show is now around 60% to 65%.
And Friday’s jobs report becomes considerably more important because of it.
The Job Market Isn’t Falling Apart
The August employment figures we’re watching are around 55,000 jobs added, with unemployment around 4.1%.
And I think we need some perspective here.
Four percent unemployment is low.
We can simultaneously acknowledge that people are struggling with prices, that some people are working multiple jobs, and that affordability remains a serious problem.
Those things can all be true.
But that’s different from saying the labor market has completely collapsed.
We’re not talking about 10% unemployment.
We’ve become accustomed to an unusually strong labor market, and I think that sometimes distorts how we interpret numbers that historically aren’t terrible.
The important question for Bitcoin is how the Fed interprets them.
Warsh has maintained that inflation still requires work, and higher energy prices make that argument harder to dismiss. If Friday’s employment report also shows enough strength to give the Fed room to raise rates, the bond market could remain a major headwind for Bitcoin.
ETF Buyers Came Back
There is some good news.
After approximately $200 million of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on Friday, buyers returned Monday with around $216.7 million in inflows.
That’s important because ETF demand has been one of the strongest sources of support during Bitcoin’s recent move.
We’re still around $78,000, though.
So the levels haven’t changed much.
Bitcoin needs to defend approximately $75,000 to $77,000.
If ETF inflows remain positive and buyers continue stepping in around these levels, Bitcoin can make another attempt at $80K.
But I’m tired of simply touching $80K.
I want to see $82K.
I want Bitcoin to establish $80K as support.
On the other side, if we break below $75,000 and start moving toward $72,000, then we’re potentially establishing another downward trend.
And remember, I still don’t think we have confirmation that the bear market is finished.
Historically, the four-year cycle would put us around the normal bottoming period in October. We’re only at September 1st.
We’re still in play.
Maybe this ends up being a shallow bear market.
Maybe the bottom is already behind us.
But Bitcoin hasn’t proven that yet.
Strategy Buys Another $370 Million of Bitcoin
Michael Saylor doesn’t appear particularly concerned.
Strategy purchased another approximately 4,603 Bitcoin for $369.7 million between August 24 and August 30 after roughly a 10-week pause in purchases.
The average purchase price was around $80,000 per Bitcoin.
Strategy now holds approximately 845,050 Bitcoin, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
They just don’t care.
Bitcoin goes up?
Buy.
Bitcoin goes down?
Buy.
Bitcoin trades sideways?
Buy.
They’re honey-badgering this thing.
Strive is doing it too, adding approximately $143 million worth of Bitcoin and becoming one of the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin treasuries, according to the figures discussed today.
ARK Buys More Block
ARK Invest also added approximately $37 million of exposure to Jack Dorsey’s Block.
And I actually think this is an interesting way to think about the Bitcoin trade.
Bitcoin-adjacent companies can get punished hard during bear markets.
Payments companies, exchanges, miners and other businesses tied to crypto don’t necessarily command the same premium when Bitcoin sentiment is terrible.
But if you’re expecting another major Bitcoin bull market, those depressed valuations can create opportunities.
If Bitcoin eventually trades at $150,000 or $200,000, what does that environment potentially mean for a company like Block?
That’s the trade ARK appears to be looking toward.
You’re not simply buying Bitcoin.
You’re buying businesses whose economics and valuations could benefit from a much larger Bitcoin ecosystem.
I think Block at depressed valuations is a smart move for exactly that reason.
Cronos Halts After a $75 Million DeFi Exploit
On the security side, the Crypto.com-linked Cronos blockchain halted following an approximately $75 million DeFi exploit.
The important part isn’t simply another protocol losing money.
It’s what happens when a sufficiently integrated DeFi protocol has a problem large enough to become an ecosystem-level issue.
We’ve spent years talking about decentralization and removing centralized points of control.
Then something breaks and suddenly we’re discussing whether a blockchain needs to halt.
That’s why these exploits continue to matter beyond the dollar amount stolen.
George Santos Apparently Bet on George Santos
Now for one of the stranger stories today.
Former Congressman George Santos has reportedly received a lifetime ban from Kalshi after trading on a market concerning whether George Santos would attend the State of the Union.
Yes.
George Santos was apparently betting on George Santos.
According to the account discussed today, Santos then allegedly made a misleading public statement about whether he intended to attend, potentially influencing the outcome of a market involving an event he personally controlled.
He reportedly made approximately $17,800 on the trade and was assessed roughly $71,000 by Kalshi.
There are prediction markets.
Then there are prediction markets where the person being predicted is also trading the prediction.
Maybe don’t do that.
Robinhood Chain Nearly Hits $1 Billion in Daily DEX Volume
Robinhood Chain nearly reached $1 billion in decentralized exchange trading volume in a single day, while total value locked climbed to approximately $708 million and stablecoin supply reached roughly $778 million.
But here’s the part I love.
We’re apparently trading meme coins against tokenized stocks now.
A token called Artificial Inu, paired against Nvidia shares, reportedly went from approximately a $1.5 million market capitalization to a peak around $135 million on August 30.
That’s close to the kind of insanity we saw during earlier crypto cycles.
The trade where somebody throws money at some ridiculous token and somehow walks out with life-changing gains.
Obviously, most people aren’t the person walking out with the million dollars.
But seeing moves like that again tells you something about how much speculation is returning to certain corners of this market.
OpenSea Brings Back Solana NFTs
OpenSea is bringing Solana NFT trading back after initially testing Solana support several years ago.
Collections including Mad Lads, Claynosaurz and other Solana-native projects are being added as OpenSea attempts to establish itself as a broader multichain trading platform rather than primarily an Ethereum NFT marketplace.
Remember when NFTs were basically synonymous with Ethereum?
That world continues changing.
Platforms increasingly want liquidity from wherever traders actually are rather than forcing everything through a single chain.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin is sitting around $77,821, down approximately 0.3% over 24 hours and 1.6% over seven days.
Ethereum is around $2,440, down approximately 0.5%.
BNB is approximately $685, essentially flat.
XRP is around $1.36, also essentially flat.
Solana is approximately $101, down around 1.2%.
TRON is around $0.326, down approximately 2.5%.
Hyperliquid is approximately $83.13, up around 2.3%.
Zcash continues moving higher at approximately $845.31, up another 2.5%.
Total Crypto Market Cap: approximately $2.63 trillion.
Fear & Greed Index: 74, Greed.
My Take
The bond market is what I’m watching.
Bitcoin ETF buyers came back Monday. Strategy is still buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. Corporate adoption isn’t disappearing.
But none of that changes the fact that Bitcoin is competing for capital in an environment where government bond yields are becoming increasingly attractive.
If inflation stays sticky, energy remains expensive, and Warsh believes getting back to 2% requires additional rate hikes, Bitcoin could be dealing with tighter liquidity exactly when bulls want another move through $80,000.
That’s why I’m still cautious.
Bitcoin has not confirmed that the bear market is over.
Defend $75K to $77K.
Get back through $80K.
Then show me $82K.
Until then, we’re still in play.