Good morning everybody.
Bitcoin finally broke through $80,000 yesterday and briefly reached roughly $81,900. Then, almost perfectly timed with me recording this morning, it dropped back toward $79,200.
So despite the excitement, my opinion hasn’t really changed. We’re still sideways.
The bulls can point to $731 million flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs, falling Treasury yields, less leverage in the futures market, and Bitcoin finally getting back above $80K. Those are all legitimate positives.
But I want confirmation. Bitcoin still hasn’t broken the resistance around $82,800 that I’ve been talking about. Until we get through that level and hold it, I’m not ready to declare that the next leg of the bull market has begun.
Why Bitcoin Jumped Above $81K
The clearest driver yesterday was ETF demand.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in approximately $731 million, according to the figures discussed on today’s show. BlackRock accounted for roughly $454 million, ARK approximately $138 million, and Fidelity around $74 million.
That’s real buying pressure.
The second factor was the Fed. Governor Christopher Waller suggested that inflation has improved enough for the Fed to consider leaving rates unchanged at the September 15-16 meeting.
I find that interesting because it sounds different from the more hawkish message we’ve been hearing from Kevin Warsh.
I’m not sure what to make of that yet. Is Waller putting this idea into the market to see how investors react? Is this simply disagreement within the Fed? Either way, I wouldn’t assume a rate hike is suddenly off the table. Prediction markets, according to the figures discussed on the show, were still assigning roughly a 60% to 65% probability to an increase.
The third positive is the bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back toward 4.75% after reaching approximately 4.82% earlier in the week.
That’s moving in the right direction.
The number I’m watching is 5%.
A 30-year yield above 5% is expensive, but the 10-year crossing 5% would concern me considerably more. That’s where borrowing conditions become increasingly difficult across the economy.
And there’s a larger government-finance problem sitting underneath this.
The federal government has an enormous amount of debt that will need to be refinanced. If debt issued at lower rates gets replaced with debt carrying significantly higher yields, interest expense goes up without taxpayers receiving another road, school, aircraft carrier or anything else in return. It’s simply the cost of servicing debt.
Combine that with annual federal deficits approaching $2 trillion, and I don’t think this is something we should dismiss because Bitcoin had a good day.
$82,800 Is the Level I Want to See
Here’s my Bitcoin map.
On the upside, $82,800 is the next serious test.
If Bitcoin can reclaim the important moving averages around this area and establish $80,000 as support, then I think $90,000 comes into play.
After that, the high $90,000s and $100,000 become the next psychological fight. I’ve said before that I expect $100K to be a significant barrier.
But none of that has happened yet.
On the downside, I’m still watching roughly $75,700 as the first important support and then approximately $71,000 below it.
There is absolutely no reason Bitcoin can’t go back in that direction.
That’s why I remain more cautious than some of the other people at Daily Crypto News. Paul is generally more bullish than I am. Craig Cobb gives us the technical view every Monday. I think having those different perspectives is useful because nobody should be looking for someone who simply tells them what they already want to hear.
There is another encouraging sign, though. The current breakout is occurring with less leverage than some previous rallies. Futures-market leverage is reportedly around a five-month low.
That’s healthier than watching Bitcoin rise primarily because traders are piling into increasingly leveraged positions.
When Bitcoin Goes Up, Bitcoin-Adjacent Stocks Can Move Even Faster
Yesterday gave us another example of something I’ve talked about repeatedly.
When Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin-adjacent companies can really move.
Coinbase jumped roughly 10% Thursday, Robinhood gained approximately 16%, and Strategy and Circle posted double-digit gains as Bitcoin moved through $80,000, according to the figures discussed today. Strategy’s preferred shares also moved back toward their intended $100-per-share value after falling as low as roughly $69.
This is why I keep watching these companies alongside Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin eventually breaks its previous all-time high and starts entering genuinely new price territory, I think investors will begin looking for companies that provide leveraged exposure to the broader crypto economy.
That doesn’t mean they’re safer than Bitcoin. They’re companies, which means you also have management, execution, regulation, debt, dilution and every other business risk.
But the upside can also move differently.
Strive CEO Matt Cole says his company could finish 2026 as the second-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder behind Strategy. Strive shares reached a year-to-date high Thursday as investors repriced Bitcoin treasury companies alongside the Bitcoin rally.
If Bitcoin eventually moves beyond its previous highs, I think some capital will rotate into these adjacent companies as investors look for bigger percentage moves.
That’s where things could get interesting.
Coinbase is also asking the SEC for approval around 24/7 stock perpetual trading.
My reaction is pretty simple: why aren’t we doing more 24/7 trading already?
Crypto has demonstrated that markets can operate continuously. Traditional markets already have extended-hours trading, but the books and settlement infrastructure still revolve around traditional market sessions.
I understand the counterargument. Traditional exchanges use circuit breakers and trading halts because sometimes markets need a cooling-off period. If something collapses suddenly, stopping trading gives people time to process what is happening rather than allowing panic to feed on itself indefinitely.
That’s legitimate.
But the broader direction still seems obvious to me. Markets are moving toward longer trading hours, tokenized assets and increasingly continuous settlement.
The other regulatory issue I’m watching is the CLARITY Act. September could be an important window because Congress is approaching the midterms, and lawmakers may become increasingly reluctant to take difficult votes as campaigning takes over.
Crypto Prices
And then Bitcoin decided to demonstrate exactly why I’m still cautious.
When I started preparing today’s show, Bitcoin was above $81,000. By the time I reached the prices, it had fallen toward $79,200, dropping approximately 2.4% in an hour.
I don’t know what caused that move yet, so I’m not going to invent an explanation.
Ethereum is around $2,450, up approximately 1.3% over 24 hours but down around 3% in the previous hour.
BNB is approximately $714 and also fell during the last hour.
XRP is around $1.41, still up roughly 2% over 24 hours despite dropping around 3% in the previous hour.
Solana is approximately $101, down around 2.4% over the previous hour.
TRON is around $0.328, down approximately 0.3% over the hour.
Hyperliquid is approximately $85.41, down around 1.8% over the hour.
Zcash is around $988, down approximately 2.2% over the previous hour but still up an enormous 17% over 24 hours.
Total Crypto Market Cap: approximately $2.86 trillion, up around 1.1% over 24 hours.
Fear & Greed: 75, Greed.
So yes, number went up.
We finally broke $80,000. ETF demand was strong. Treasury yields eased. Leverage looks relatively restrained. Bitcoin-adjacent stocks exploded higher.
Those are all bullish developments.
I’m still waiting for $82,800.
Get through there, reclaim the important moving averages, and turn $80K into the floor. Then I’m willing to start talking seriously about $90K.
Until then, the same downside levels remain in play, and the fact that Bitcoin dropped roughly $2,000 while I was preparing this podcast is a pretty good reminder of why I’m not calling the breakout early.