BITCOIN INSPIRED · Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Evening Brief
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
— attributed to John Maynard Keynes
🎵 Song of the Day: “Under Pressure” — Queen & David Bowie. It fit this morning and fits better tonight.
📊 Market Snapshot
(Evening · The Block + Ted Pillows + CappNotes)
🟧 BTC: ~$73,300 (about -2%), intraday low $72,787
📉 Stocks: S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%, Nvidia about -5%
📈 Yields: 10-year near 4.99%, with the 2-year up nearly 20 basis points
Support: $73,027 (August low) → $72,787 (today’s low) → $70,000
Resistance: $74,844 → $76,000 → $77,430
🧭 What Happened
October CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%. Bitcoin sat near $74,400 when the report landed, then fell to $72,866 after the US open, under the late-August floor. About $200 million in long positions were liquidated in the first five minutes. It has since climbed back to sit on the line.
⚖️ Forces Board: What Moved Today
1. The Fed. Got worse.
Core inflation has now printed 0.3% three months running, an annualized pace near 3.7%. CME FedWatch showed 88% odds of a quarter-point hike and 11% for a half point. The odds of no move fell to 3% from 21%. The next CPI report arrives Dec. 10, one day after the decision, so the Fed decides without it. Still cyclical, but the cycle just got longer.
2. The ETF bid. No relief.
Today’s flow numbers aren’t out yet. A hot print gives funds no new reason to come back.
3. The tech tether. Confirmed.
Bitcoin fell with stocks today, and fell further. The link works on the way down.
Forces 4 and 5 (thin retail, Washington) didn’t change.
One counterweight: corporate treasuries are still buying. Trump Media disclosed adding 1,510 BTC in Q3, taking its holdings to 15,649.
🔎 The Verdict, Updated
This morning’s read holds, with one change. The headwind is stronger than it looked at 8 AM, and it now has a date: Dec. 8–9. Until the Fed is done, rallies have to fight rising yields. November has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, with a median gain of 8.6% since 2010. This one is starting from behind.
👥 Three Lenses
No-coiner: The fair question tonight is “isn’t Bitcoin an inflation hedge?” Over years, it has tracked the growth of the money supply. Over days, it trades on interest rates. Hot inflation means higher rates, and higher rates hurt anything that pays no yield.
Some-coiner: The level to know is the 200-day, around $73,170. Price is sitting on it. A close below is a signal that the longer trend has weakened. It says nothing about the supply cap or the network.
OG: Liquidity drives this market, as it always has. The difference in 2026 is that the central bank is tightening into it and the ETF bid is leaving at the same time. You’ve held through worse with fewer buyers.
👀 Watch Next
Tonight’s daily close against the August low at $73,027.
Friday: producer prices.
Fed speakers: Waller and Logan have set the hawkish tone. Anyone pushing back matters.
ETF flow data for today, due overnight.
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Stack sats. Stack self-awareness. Both compound.
— The Inspirator ⚓