Bitcoin didn’t give traders much excitement last week, but after the enormous move higher the week before, that may actually be a positive.
After such a dramatic rally, the obvious risk was a violent snapback. Instead, Bitcoin spent the week consolidating and finished almost exactly where it started.
For Craig, that’s evidence that Bitcoin remains surprisingly strong.
The problem is that strong doesn’t necessarily mean tradable.
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Bitcoin Didn’t Snap Back
After a major move higher, Craig normally expects some elasticity in the market.
Think of it like stretching a rubber band.
The further you pull it, the greater the possibility that it snaps back when buyers finally let go.
But that hasn’t happened.
Bitcoin spent an entire week grinding sideways and ultimately closed approximately 0.09% higher.
Essentially flat.
There was selling after Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments about sticky inflation, but even that wasn’t enough to create a significant breakdown.
The resulting weekly candle rejected the highs, closed near where it opened, and failed to extend the previous week’s rally.
Some technical traders might give that candle a specific name.
Craig doesn’t care.
What matters is what the candle actually tells him.
Price tried to move higher.
It failed.
But sellers also failed to push Bitcoin meaningfully lower.
In the context of the massive rally that preceded it, that’s not necessarily bearish.
Bitcoin Still Looks Surprisingly Strong
Craig believes Bitcoin could still push toward new highs within its current trajectory.
But there’s an important distinction between having a bullish higher-time-frame outlook and having a market worth trading.
Right now, Bitcoin is messy.
Craig isn’t seeing the clean trend structure or cyclicity he wants.
When markets establish clear trends with consistent pullbacks and continuation moves, he can repeatedly trade those structures.
When price chops sideways without a clear rhythm, there’s considerably less to work with.
Bitcoin currently falls into the second category.
The Four-Hour Chart Isn’t Giving Craig Enough
Craig uses the four-hour chart as an important middle ground.
It sits between the shorter trading time frames and the daily chart.
When the four-hour chart shows good trend structure and cyclicity, it often opens opportunities on both the four-hour and lower time frames.
Bitcoin isn’t providing that clarity right now.
Ethereum and much of the rest of the largest cryptocurrencies look similar.
That doesn’t mean opportunities won’t develop quickly.
Crypto proved that only two weeks ago.
But Craig isn’t interested in forcing trades while waiting for the market to become clearer.
Pump.fun Shows the Structure Craig Wants
Craig uses Pump.fun as an example of the type of market structure he wants to find.
The important part isn’t simply that price went higher.
It’s how it went higher.
Strong move.
Pullback.
Continuation.
Another pullback.
Another continuation.
That’s cyclicity.
It creates a recognizable rhythm that allows a trend follower to identify potential entries while managing risk around a repeatable structure.
Craig notes that a member of his community, Manny, caught the earlier Pump.fun opportunity.
Now he’s searching for similar structures elsewhere in the market.
Zora Has the Right Ingredients
Zora is one of the charts catching Craig’s attention.
It established a higher low followed by a higher high and then produced a clean pullback toward Craig’s moving-average cradle zone.
There’s also good convergence around the setup.
The problem is that price may have already moved too far for the particular opportunity Craig was watching.
That’s an important distinction.
A chart can look bullish without necessarily offering a good trade right now.
Craig isn’t recommending Zora.
He’s using it to demonstrate the structure he wants:
Good trend. Good cyclicity. Good momentum.
CHIP Shows the Same Trend-Following Structure
Craig also highlights CHIP on the 12-hour chart.
Again, he’s looking for structure rather than simply a coin that’s moving higher.
CHIP produced a higher low, tested the previous high, formed another higher low, pushed cleanly through resistance and then pulled back toward the moving averages.
That’s the rhythm Craig has built his trading approach around.
He’s not saying it’s automatically a trade.
He’s demonstrating the checklist.
Trend.
Cyclicity.
Momentum.
Moving-average structure.
Then patience.
ZRO Is Holding an Important Psychological Level
The final chart Craig highlights is ZRO on the daily time frame.
ZRO formed a higher low and higher high before becoming messy.
Now that volatility has calmed down, Craig is watching the developing bullish candle and the fact that price is holding just above $1.
That’s important because $1 represents an obvious psychological level.
Again, it isn’t a recommendation.
It’s another example of a chart displaying more of the characteristics Craig wants than Bitcoin currently does.
Liquidity Still Matters
Craig would prefer to trade major cryptocurrencies because that’s generally where the deepest liquidity exists.
But time frame matters.
Zora had roughly $33 million in trading volume during the period discussed, while ZRO had around $6.6 million.
Lower liquidity becomes less problematic when Craig is looking at a daily setup because the wider stop generally means a smaller position size while maintaining the same amount of risk.
It’s another example of why Craig doesn’t evaluate a setup using a single variable.
Trend structure, cyclicity, momentum, liquidity, time frame and risk all interact.
My Take
Bitcoin’s consolidation is encouraging because the huge rally wasn’t immediately erased.
But Craig isn’t going to manufacture a Bitcoin trade simply because Bitcoin looks strong.
He’s a trend follower.
Right now, the cleaner trends are appearing elsewhere.
That’s why he’s watching charts such as Zora, CHIP and ZRO while Bitcoin sorts itself out.
Last week was considerably slower than the opportunity-filled week before it.
That can change quickly.
For now, Craig is staying patient, looking for good trends with good cyclicity, and waiting for Bitcoin’s next leg.
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