G’day everybody.
Bitcoin went absolutely bananas last week.
After spending weeks frustrating traders with sideways price action, Bitcoin ripped roughly 26% in a single weekly candle, with most of that move happening across only about three days.
That kind of move matters.
Craig wasn’t expecting it, and he wasn’t subscribed to the idea that October had to be the cycle low. But after looking at the larger time frames, he thinks the picture may have changed.
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The Weekly Move Was a Statement
Before last week’s breakout, Bitcoin had spent roughly two and a half weeks moving sideways.
Craig had been watching for a cleaner pullback that would establish a higher low on the weekly chart.
That never happened.
Instead, Bitcoin exploded higher.
A 5% or 6% move could have been dismissed as another bounce.
A 26% weekly candle is different.
That is enough to make Craig step back and reassess the bigger structure rather than simply assume the existing bear-market framework remains intact.
The Three-Month Chart Looks Bullish
Craig moved all the way out to the three-month chart to look at Bitcoin’s historical trend structure.
Each candle represents three months of price action.
After previous major bear markets, Bitcoin repeatedly found support around the moving-average zone Craig uses in his trend-following system.
Following the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin eventually produced a bullish candle around that area before rallying dramatically.
A similar structure appeared after the following bear market.
Now Bitcoin has once again produced a bullish three-month candle after three consecutive pullback candles.
That does not guarantee the market goes straight up.
But historically, Craig says these higher-timeframe setups have often appeared around periods when selling pressure was beginning to run out of steam.
The Six-Month Chart Tells a Similar Story
The six-month chart reinforces that argument.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly produced two six-month periods of weakness before recovering from the same broad moving-average region.
The current market is beginning to show a similar structure.
Bitcoin has already produced two weaker six-month candles, and the current six-month period has now moved into positive territory largely because of last week’s rally.
Craig isn’t claiming the bottom is definitively in.
He is saying the evidence on the three-month and six-month charts has become substantially more constructive.
Craig Wasn’t Waiting for an October Low
A lot of analysts had been calling for an October bottom.
Craig wasn’t particularly interested in that theory.
His approach looks at both time and price.
As Bitcoin gets closer to the next halving cycle without producing another major selloff, the window for substantially lower prices begins to narrow.
That changes what he’s willing to pay.
If sellers don’t show up while the market still has time to produce another deep drawdown, then eventually the bid has to move higher.
Last week’s move caught him by surprise.
But now that it happened, he has to trade the market in front of him rather than the market he expected.
Maybe We Don’t Get the Final Capitulation
Previous Bitcoin bear markets have often included a major final capitulation event.
This cycle hasn’t really produced one.
There was no equivalent collapse of a giant crypto company that completely broke market confidence.
For a while, Strategy looked like the obvious candidate.
If Bitcoin continued lower and Strategy’s financial structure came under serious pressure, that could have created the type of capitulation event traders expected.
Instead, Bitcoin rallied and Strategy suddenly looks considerably healthier.
Craig thinks one reason this cycle may be different is the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs and digital-asset treasury companies.
Institutional buying may have changed the structure enough that the market doesn’t need to follow every part of previous cycles exactly.
Markets Change, but Trend Still Matters
Craig’s main point isn’t that Bitcoin has entered a guaranteed new bull market.
It’s that market structure evolves.
ETFs didn’t exist in previous cycles in the same way they do now.
Corporate Bitcoin treasury companies weren’t bidding for Bitcoin at this scale.
Institutional participation is different.
But one thing Craig says hasn’t changed is the importance of trend cyclicity.
And on the three-month and six-month charts, the trend is now beginning to look much healthier.
That is what matters to him.
Craig Isn’t Trying to Catch the Exact Bottom
Craig isn’t trying to buy the absolute bottom.
He isn’t trying to sell the absolute top either.
He’s trying to capture the profitable section in the middle.
That means waiting until the market provides enough evidence that the trend has shifted and then participating in that move.
After last week’s rally, the higher-timeframe evidence is considerably stronger than it was only a few days ago.
For anyone still sitting heavily in cash and waiting for significantly lower Bitcoin prices, Craig believes the three-month and six-month charts are worth paying very close attention to now.
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My Take
Craig’s view has changed because the market changed.
He expected more weakness.
Bitcoin didn’t give it to him.
Instead, it produced one of the strongest weekly candles of the cycle and pushed the three-month and six-month charts into structures that have historically appeared near the end of major selling periods.
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin can’t pull back.
It doesn’t mean the bear market is officially dead.
But if you’re still waiting for the perfect capitulation event and significantly lower prices, the market may be telling you that opportunity is becoming less likely.
Craig isn’t calling the exact bottom.
He’s saying the evidence now supports paying much more attention to the possibility that the next major trend is higher.
