Craig opened the week reiterating why he exited Bitcoin when the monthly uptrend broke. That level has not recovered, and last week only reinforced that decision. Bitcoin closed down another 2.12% and, more importantly, has now logged three very strong weeks of selling without any meaningful relief rally. One sharp 12% daily bounce occurred after dipping below $60,000, but beyond that, there has been no sustained push with real momentum behind it.
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On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin could technically form a higher low if it pushes through roughly $72,250, but Craig described that structure as weak. It would not represent a strong reversal, just a minor shift in short-term structure. From his perspective, this is not a bottom-buying environment. Could the market produce a V-shaped recovery? Yes. Is that something he is willing to bet on? No.
Drawing from previous bear markets, Craig pointed out that sharp declines are often followed by periods of consolidation before another sudden leg lower. Markets don’t always fall in a straight line. They grind, compress, and then sometimes “go off a cliff” quickly. That possibility is why he is not racing back in.
From a trading standpoint, he remains active, but selectively. The focus is lower timeframes and high-liquidity pairs. Breakout trades on the 30-minute chart, quick in-and-out positioning, no overnight exposure. He is avoiding low-liquidity altcoins where slippage and volatility distort risk management. Discipline and checklist execution matter more than prediction right now.
Across majors like Ethereum, Binance, and others, there has been little to no convincing bounce. Ethereum in particular has shown almost no weekly recovery. Some altcoins closed slightly green on the week, but the broader structure remains weak and sideways. Craig emphasized that the trends across multiple timeframes lack strong cyclicity, which makes larger swing trades unattractive at this stage.
He is also watching the S&P 500 closely. The index has been grinding higher but looks strained, like “holding your arms out horizontally until they get heavy.” If the S&P were to break key levels and retrace roughly 10% from its highs, that could increase volatility across crypto and potentially create lower entry opportunities in Bitcoin.
For now, he remains patient. No rushing. No forcing trades. Cash is still a position. He will outline specific rebuy levels in his newsletter, but until structure improves, he is waiting for cleaner setups and clearer trends before committing capital again.
