Craig Cobb says the S&P 500 may finally be confirming the pullback he has been warning about for weeks. The key support level he has been watching has now broken, and futures have already dropped roughly 4–5 percent from recent highs. In his view, that weakness in equities matters because Bitcoin continues to behave like a liquidity-driven risk asset. When stocks sell off, crypto tends to follow.
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He had previously expected a pullback of roughly 10 percent in the S&P before the current geopolitical escalation. Now, with conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States adding uncertainty, he believes the potential downside in equities could be even deeper. For now, however, he is simply watching whether the decline continues to develop rather than assuming the worst immediately.
Interestingly, Bitcoin initially moved the opposite direction, printing a bullish daily candle while equities were dropping. But Craig says that short-term move doesn’t change the broader technical picture. Bitcoin recently pushed above $70,000 but failed its first major resistance test and quickly sold off again. In his view, that rejection reinforces the idea that the market is still in a bearish structure.
Looking at the weekly chart, the situation remains fragile. Bitcoin nearly closed seven weeks in a row to the downside before barely finishing slightly positive. That small bounce does not signal strength to him. Instead, it highlights just how weak the chart still looks overall. Craig believes the market is still stuck in a consolidation phase that often precedes another leg lower during bear cycles.
His expectation remains that Bitcoin may eventually push into the $50,000 range before the next major accumulation opportunity appears. If that happens, he plans to begin buying again for a longer-term position. Until then, he remains in cash and focused on short-term trading setups rather than large directional bets.
Across the broader crypto market, the same pattern is showing up. Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Cardano are all consolidating with price action leaning toward downside pressure. Tron is one of the few assets showing relative strength, but most of the market remains stuck in sideways ranges with bearish bias.
For traders, Craig says the current environment calls for a different mindset. Instead of looking for huge breakout trades, he recommends smaller, faster setups. In volatile markets like this, the strategy is simple: take small wins, manage risk tightly, and stay patient while waiting for the larger macro move to develop.
