Craig Cobb says Bitcoin may be approaching another critical turning point after failing to hold the momentum from the recent Clarity Act rally. Bitcoin briefly pushed higher on optimism surrounding regulation headlines, but the move completely reversed almost immediately, wiping out the gains from May 14 and closing the week with the first significant bearish weekly candle in some time. In Craig’s view, that kind of failed breakout is exactly the type of behavior traders should pay attention to.
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Looking at the charts, Craig says the weekly structure is now leaning bearish again. Bitcoin has broken below last week’s low while the moving averages and MACD continue aligning in a way that typically signals downside continuation. He emphasized that he does not trade narratives or emotions. He trades trends. And right now, the trend on the weekly chart is beginning to look weak.
He also pointed to macro concerns beginning to build globally. Hotter-than-expected CPI data has shifted conversations away from rate cuts and back toward the possibility of future rate hikes, something Craig says already impacted markets heavily in Australia. While he does not trade predictions directly, he believes tightening conditions could weigh on risk assets broadly if sentiment continues deteriorating.
Ethereum remains one of his biggest warning signs. While Bitcoin previously managed to print higher highs, Ethereum never came close to confirming the move and instead continued showing relative weakness. Across much of the top ten, Craig sees charts that look more like temporary relief rallies inside broader weekly downtrends rather than the beginning of a sustainable new bull cycle. Solana, XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Bitcoin Cash all rallied briefly before pulling directly back into what he calls the “cradle zone” around the moving averages.
Craig says the broader crypto market now feels overly optimistic again, which historically tends to happen near exhaustion points. In his experience, once the initial wave of buyers is already positioned, markets need a completely new source of optimism and fresh capital to continue pushing meaningfully higher. Without that, momentum fades quickly. For now, his charts suggest there may still be more downside ahead, and he believes traders should be prepared for that possibility rather than assuming the bull market has fully returned.
